Table 4 Detection rate, false positive rate and the ratio true-to-false positives for the FIOH prediction model in all participants and subgroups of individuals with no history of sickness absence and those with a chronic condition at baseline.
From: Predicting work disability among people with chronic conditions: a prospective cohort study
Predictive performance for a positive test | Threshold for a positive test result | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 40 | 50 | 60 | |
Musculoskeletal disorders | |||||||
Detection rate (%) | 95.3 | 86.6 | 65.9 | 46.6 | 32.7 | 21.1 | 12.8 |
False positive rate (%) | 70.2 | 50.4 | 26.6 | 13.6 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.7 |
Ratio true to false positives | 1:4.5 | 1:3.5 | 1:2.5 | 1:1.8 | 1:1.3 | 1:1.0 | 1:0.8 |
Migraine | |||||||
Detection rate (%) | 92.0 | 83.1 | 63.6 | 47.6 | 33.3 | 22.1 | 14.3 |
False positive rate (%) | 54.2 | 37.0 | 19.3 | 10.0 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
Ratio true to false positives | 1:5.4 | 1:4.1 | 1:2.8 | 1:1.9 | 1:1.4 | 1:1.1 | 1:0.7 |
Hypertension | |||||||
Detection rate (%) | 96.4 | 89.6 | 71.2 | 53.2 | 37.3 | 24.8 | 15.2 |
False positive rate (%) | 80.5 | 61.7 | 34.4 | 17.9 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 |
Ratio true to false positives | 1:4.7 | 1:3.9 | 1:2.7 | 1:1.9 | 1:1.4 | 1:1.1 | 1:0.8 |
Respiratory disease | |||||||
Detection rate (%) | 93.0 | 84.8 | 66.0 | 49.9 | 35.8 | 24.1 | 15.1 |
False positive rate (%) | 59.9 | 42.9 | 23.2 | 12.9 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.8 |
Ratio true to false positives | 1:4.6 | 1:3.6 | 1:2.5 | 1:1.9 | 1:1.4 | 1:1.1 | 1:0.8 |
Depression | |||||||
Detection rate (%) | 93.4 | 86.2 | 69.7 | 53.7 | 40.1 | 27.4 | 18.0 |
False positive rate (%) | 72.3 | 54.3 | 31.7 | 18.5 | 10.7 | 6.1 | 3.0 |
Ratio true to false positives | 1:3.9 | 1:3.2 | 1:2.3 | 1:1.7 | 1:1.3 | 1:1.1 | 1:0.8 |
Diabetes | |||||||
Detection rate (%) | 97.0 | 91.6 | 77.7 | 62.4 | 46.3 | 32.8 | 20.7 |
False positive rate (%) | 80.8 | 68.0 | 46.3 | 27.6 | 16.1 | 8.6 | 4.3 |
Ratio true to false positives | 1:4.2 | 1:3.8 | 1:3.0 | 1:2.3 | 1:1.8 | 1:1.3 | 1:1.1 |
Cancer | |||||||
Detection rate (%) | 93.1 | 80.4 | 58.3 | 42.2 | 30.3 | 18.9 | 13.2 |
False positive rate (%) | 78.8 | 59.3 | 33.5 | 18.8 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 2.1 |
Ratio true to false positives | 1:5.1 | 1:4.5 | 1:3.5 | 1:2.7 | 1:1.9 | 1:1.4 | 1:1.0 |
Coronary heart disease | |||||||
Detection rate (%) | 99.2 | 97.2 | 88.9 | 76.1 | 62.8 | 47.2 | 31.7 |
False positive rate (%) | 94.4 | 87.5 | 66.4 | 45.5 | 30.3 | 19.0 | 10.3 |
Ratio true to false positives | 1:3.3 | 1:3.1 | 1:2.6 | 1:2.0 | 1:1.7 | 1:1.4 | 1:1.1 |
Comorbid depression and cardiometabolic disease | |||||||
Detection rate (%) | 98.1 | 96.3 | 90.7 | 79.8 | 67.7 | 52.8 | 38.5 |
False positive rate (%) | 89.0 | 79.9 | 61.9 | 45.2 | 32.3 | 20.1 | 11.8 |
Ratio true to false positives | 1:2.4 | 1:2.2 | 1:1.8 | 1:1.5 | 1:1.2 | 1:1.0 | 1:0.8 |
Low-risk population | |||||||
Detection rate (%) | 81.6 | 63.5 | 35.0 | 17.2 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.2 |
False positive rate (%) | 38.2 | 21.5 | 7.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Ratio true to false positives | 1:8.1 | 1:5.9 | 1:3.8 | 1:2.7 | 1:2.0 | 1:1.9 | 1:1.6 |
Total cohort | |||||||
Detection rate (%) | 87.9 | 75.0 | 52.5 | 35.9 | 24.0 | 15.0 | 9.1 |
False positive rate (%) | 43.7 | 27.0 | 12.0 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.62 |
Ratio true to false positives | 1:5.9 | 1:4.3 | 1:2.7 | 1:1.9 | 1:1.4 | 1:1.1 | 1:0.8 |
