Figure 2

The BN structure learnt (developed) from the Surgo COVID-19 Vaccine Survey data, depicted as directed acyclic graph (DAG). For clarity, we only include nodes that are direct (immediately upstream) or indirect causes (further upstream) of vaccine intention. Significant causes are those whose change would significantly alter vaccine intention (p-value < 5%) when we perform simulations. The direct causes of vaccine intention are mostly beliefs and perceptions, and social norms. Direct causes are in turn driven by remote causes, which consist mostly of structural factors, influencers and outcome expectations.