Table 2 Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis results.

From: Physical distancing versus testing with self-isolation for controlling an emerging epidemic

 

Optimal

No controls

Distancing

Testing

No controls

0.044 (0.009)

–

0.252 (0.019)

0.046 (0.009)

Distancing

0.170 (0.017)

0.748 (0.019)

–

0.360 (0.021)

Testing

0.516 (0.022)

0.954 (0.009)

0.596 (0.022)

–

Combined

0.270 (0.020)

0.956 (0.009)

0.786 (0.018)

0.440(0.022)

  1. Frequency that each policy strategy (No controls, Distancing, Testing, Combined) was optimal among 500 Monte Carlo iterations (column 1), and frequencies that the strategy in each row outperformed each other strategy (columns 2–4). Parameters were drawn from independent triangular distributions with modes and endpoints defined by primary values and ranges shown in Table 3. Numbers in parentheses are standard errors.
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