Figure 4
Looking inside the model. (a,b) The rate difference, as predicted by ETAS and FERN to a single earthquake. We added a synthetic earthquake to the catalog at \(144^{\circ }, 40^{\circ }\) (marked with a yellow star) at time \(t=10.10.2010\) at midnight, and calculated the difference between the rate predicted by the models with and without the synthetic earthquake, 1 h after the event. The plotted region is Region A, and the fault line is shown in red. (c) The activation of one of the latent neurons in the output of the location encoder, for each spatial cell (other neurons show qualitatively similar patterns). It is seen that this patterns correlates well with total number of earthquakes in the cell, shown in (d). We can think about the output of the location encoder as a generalization of the background rate \(\mu\) of the ETAS model, which is shown in (e).
