Table 6 The main insights from our study and recommendations on how to use these insights to counteract misinformation tweets.

Earthquake predictions are continuously present on Twitter with peaks after felt earthquakes

The fact that earthquake predictions are continuously present on Twitter means that there is a continuous need for communication measures to counteract them, even in quiet times (e.g., campaigns, social events). However, it is particularly important after felt events, to devote attention and resources to actively counteracting the spread of false predictions

Foster measures to counteract misinformation, especially after an event, but also at other times

Tweeters link earthquake notifications from official sources in their earthquake prediction claims

This is especially critical because the readers might trust the official source and thus also believe in the misinformation. Therefore, official (governmental) institutions and agencies should continuously check that their notifications are not linked or that their account is not tagged in misinformation tweets

Check who is sharing, tagging, and linking your posts and, ask not to be associated with misleading content

URLs are used more than media (pictures & videos) in tweets

Not-misinformation tweets especially also contain a URL to the official website of the notification. This allows users to access further detailed information if they wish. It further enables users who want to actively counteract predictions to provide reliable sources for their arguments

Provide information sources opponents can use to support their arguments

Besides the private earthquake prediction websites, misinformation videos from YouTube are often linked in tweets

The communication strategy should address misinformation on the different social media platforms, as the misinformation sources are also shared on the other platforms. Further, as the types of misinformation may vary across the platforms, different communication approaches are needed²⁸

Monitor multiple social media channels

Decision support tools are an essential part of every policy process

Decision support tools are a crucial component of an informed policy-making process. These resources come in a variety of shapes and sizes, including software applications, statistical models, tools for data visualization, and expert systems

Provide decision support tools to deal with misinformation on social media

Misinformation, media policy, and critical thinking are all interrelated issues that have an impact on how people receive and understand information in the digital age

The term "media policy" refers to the rules and regulations that control the media sector, such as the laws governing ownership, free expression, and content management. The ability to evaluate facts, analyse information objectively, and reach well-founded conclusions is referred to as critical thinking

Create media policy measures to stimulate critical thinking

Uncertainty can lead to anxiety, which in turn increases the chance that people will believe in misinformation

After an event, one of the first questions people ask is if this was the main shock or if a stronger earthquake will follow. In particular, when people receive the information that further earthquakes are expected, this uncertainty can lead to anxiety as the following tweet shows: “This is what I’m worried about – that last night’s quake was a foreshock. I really hope not. They warned us last night about aftershocks for the next 7 days. They’ve been saying for years that a big one can strike at any time in the Kanto region.” This anxiety in turn leads people more likely to believe in misinformation^22,65 and can even trigger panic and inappropriate behaviors²

Treat emotions of users on social media seriously

There were only a few tweets that actively clarified that it is impossible to predict an earthquake

As part of National Earthquake Days, some tweets sensitized people, in an attractive way, to the fact that earthquake predictions are not possible. During such dedicated days, people’s attention to learning something new and interest is heightened, improving the success of information campaigns⁶⁶

Educate people when their attention is high (e.g., holding national or local earthquake days)

An earthquake rarely comes alone

The events analyzed in this study show that strong earthquakes, in most cases, trigger secondary hazards that are an additional threat to the affected societies (e.g., tsunamis, landslides, volcanos). Further, people indicated that they were so frightened by COVID-19 that any further disaster/emergency was an additional burden, which can have negative psychological effects

Consider multi-hazard communication

General notifications and correct information about earthquake (events) dominate

Our results show that general notification and information about dominate the debates on Twitter and people are thus coming across correct information with links to accurate official websites more often. This is important as misinformation then has less value and does not take over the discussion focus

Foster dissemination of correct information