Figure 5

Changes of the occurrence risk of grasslands by Jacobaea aquatica in Bavaria from 1988 to 1997 to 2008–2017. Dark red indicates areas where the model predicts a new occurrence of the species in 2007–2017, in the light red areas J. aquatica already occurred but the appearance became 20% more likely. Similarly, dark blue indicates areas where the model predicts the extinction of former findings and light blue represents areas where J. aquatica already occurred in 1988–1997 but survival became at least 20% more unlikely.