Figure 6
From: Replicating superspreader dynamics with compartmental models
Extinction probability. Derived estimates of the extinction probability q using posterior estimates for the heterogeneity parameters \((\alpha , \sigma , c, \rho )\) and a fixed \(R = 3\). Markers indicate the median extinction probability for the negative binomial (circle), unconstrained two-type (triangle), two-type SEIR (plus), clinical (square), unconstrained single-type (diamond) and single-type SEIR (cross) models, whilst the dark and light shaded bands give the 25-75% and 2.5-97.5% credible intervals, respectively. Each marker and interval is colored according to the corresponding pathogen: SARS-CoV-2 (gray); SARS-CoV-1 (salmon); smallpox (green); EBV (light blue); MERS-CoV (brown); Mpox (pink); and tuberculosis (yellow); and each outbreak is labelled according to location, year and size. For reference, we have also shown the predicted extinction probability for the single-type model with \(\sigma =1\), i.e., \(q\approx 0.209\).
