Figure 4

Country-wise model fit, and the relative contribution of model components based on the final multivariate time-series models for the HPAI2122 data. Dots show the actual counts of reported highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5 subtype) detections in domestic and wild birds. Only countries with > 200 detections are depicted. The last panel shows the overall model fit aggregated over all the 37 countries. Note that the scales on the Y-axes are different for some of the graphs, and zero/missing detections have been omitted. Although actual counts from week 44–49 in 2022 are depicted, they were not part of the training set in the model, and thus are not part of the model fit.