Figure 5 | Scientific Reports

Figure 5

From: Using surveillance data for early warning modelling of highly pathogenic avian influenza in Europe reveals a seasonal shift in transmission, 2016–2022

Figure 5

Simulation-based long-term forecast for (A) the HPAI1621 final model starting from the last week in 2019 (left-hand dot), and (B) the HPAI2122 final model starting from week 39 in 2021. The plots show weekly number of predicted and observed highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5 subtype) detections aggregated over all countries. The fan charts represent the 1% and 99% quantiles of the simulations (N = 500) each week; their mean is displayed as a white line. Actual reported number of detections are depicted with open circles. Data from week 47 to week 52 in 2021 for the HPAI1621 model and week 44–49 in 2022 in the HPAI2122 model were not used to train the models.

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