Table 2 Coefficient estimates from the final multivariate time-series models for HPAI1621 and HPAI2122.
Model components/ parameters | HPAI1621 | HPAI2122 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Coeff | SE | 2.5% CI | 97.5% CI | Coeff | SE | 2.5% CI | 97.5% CI | |
Endemic component | ||||||||
Sine(2πt/52) | 0.646 | 0.089 | 0.471 | 0.821 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
Cosine(2πt/52) | 2.099 | 0.266 | 1.577 | 2.621 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
Sine(4πt/52) | 0.604 | 0.077 | 0.453 | 0.754 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
Cosine(4πt/52) | 0.872 | 0.112 | 0.652 | 1.091 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
Sine(6πt/52) | 1.398 | 0.174 | 1.058 | 1.738 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
Cosine(6πt/52) | 0.689 | 0.096 | 0.522 | 0.856 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
Length of coastline | 0.027 | 0.120 | − 0.209 | 0.262 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
Area of wetland | − 0.168 | 0.214 | − 0.588 | 0.252 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
Random intercept | 0.669 | 1.016 | − 1.323 | 2.660 | 5.163 | 1.890 | 1.458 | 8.867 |
Epidemic component | ||||||||
Sine(2πt/52) | 0.862 | 0.091 | 0.684 | 1.040 | 0.976 | 0.146 | 0.691 | 1.262 |
Cosine(2πt/52) | 1.322 | 0.166 | 0.997 | 1.648 | 1.297 | 0.146 | 1.011 | 1.582 |
Sine(4πt/52) | NA | NA | NA | NA | 0.954 | 0.106 | 0.746 | 1.162 |
Cosine(4πt/52) | NA | NA | NA | NA | 1.029 | 0.104 | 0.825 | 1.233 |
Length of coastline | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
Area of wetland | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
Within-country random intercept | 0.603 | 0.102 | 0.402 | 0.804 | 0.662 | 0.159 | 0.351 | 0.974 |
Between country random intercept | 0.123 | 0.027 | 0.070 | 0.175 | 0.070 | 0.022 | 0.027 | 0.112 |
Spatial weights (wji) | 25.167 | 6.437 | 12.550 | 37.785 | 28.940 | 18.993 | -8.286 | 66.165 |
