Table 4 Impact of climate change on maize yield.

From: Climate trends and maize production nexus in Mississippi: empirical evidence from ARDL modelling

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob

 

(A) Calculated ARDL model estimates for short and long run effects of Tmax, Tmin, CO2, HA, and PT on maize yield (dependent variable)

ARDL model long run effects

 

Tmax

 − 26.330

9.169

 − 2.872***

0.008

 

Tmin

20.684

6.731

3.073***

0.005

 

CO2

0.629

0.976

0.644**

0.032

 

HA

0.155

0.154

1.007

0.323

 

PT

 − 2.696

0.983

 − 2.742**

0.011

 

ARDL model short run effects

 

Tmax

 − 7.392

2.074

 − 3.563***

0.001

 

Tmin

2.361

1.340

1.760

0.091

 

CO2

 − 0.061

0.623

-0.098

0.922

 

HA

0.018

0.093

0.198

0.844

 

PT

 − 0.645

0.249

 − 2.587**

0.016

 

C

44.329

25.660

1.728**

0.096

 

ECM

 − 0.302

0.038

 − 7.892***

0.000

 

R square

0.834

    

Adjusted R square

0.766

    

Growing season months

Climatic variables

Tmax

Tmin

DTR

PT

RH

(B) Pearson’s correlation matrix between the first differenced (detrended) yield and climatic variables (Tmax, Tmin, DTR, PT, RH) based on each month of MGS

March

0.248

0.228

0.013

 − 0.251

0.103

April

0.062

0.129

 − 0.107

0.024

0.248

May

0.173

0.240

 − 0.123

 − 0.143

 − 0.024

June

 − 0.001**

0.485***

 − 0.420**

0.267

0.226

July

 − 0.159***

0.314*

 − 0.472***

0.132

0.190

August

 − 0.000

0.354**

 − 0.319*

 − 0.323*

0.022

September

0.213

0.231

 − 0.019

 − 0.098

 − 0.126

  1. “*” p < 0.05, “**” p < 0.01, and “***” p < 0.001.
  2. Tmax represents maximum temperature, Tmin: minimum temperature, DTR: diurnal temperature range, CO2: carbon emissions, HA: harvested acres for maize, PT: precipitation, and ECM: error correction model. Significance codes: “*” p < 0.05, “**” p < 0.01, and “***” p < 0.001.
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