Table 1 Projected area (km2) for Phthorimaea absoluta establishment risk index (ERI) and the percent of area changes between current and future climatic scenarios for the years 2050 and 2070 under two Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5(SSPs).
Continent | ERI | Current | SSP2-4.5 /2050s | SSP5-8.5/2050s | SSP2-4.5 /2070s | SSP5-8.5/2070s | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Area km2 | % area of total | Area km2 | % area of total | Area km2 | % area of total | Area km2 | % area of total | Area km2 | %area of total | ||
Africa | 0.0–0.2 | 3368628 | 11.22 | 3656988 | 12.2 (0.9)* | 3443472 | 11.48 (0.3) | 3665412 | 12.21(0.9) | 4396032 | 14.65 (3.4) |
0.2–0.4 | 1166724 | 3.89 | 1254852 | 4.18 (0.3) | 2814912 | 9.38 (5.5) | 3138912 | 10.46 (6.6) | 3876660 | 12.92 (9.0) | |
0.4–0.6 | 12461040 | 41.54 | 11048400 | 36.83 (− 4.7) | 10096812 | 33.65 (− 7.9) | 10678392 | 35.59 (− 5.9) | 8841960 | 29.47 (− 12.1) | |
0.6–0.8 | 7500600 | 25.00 | 8622288 | 28.74 (3.7) | 10249416 | 34.16 (9.2) | 8660844 | 28.87 (3.9) | 10264968 | 34.21 (9.2) | |
0.8–1.0 | 5504112 | 18.34 | 5418576 | 18.06 (− 0.3) | 3396492 | 11.32 (− 7.0) | 3857544 | 12.86 (− 5.5) | 2621484 | 8.74 (− 9.6) | |
Asia | 0.0–0.2 | 16330657 | 36.41 | 11569153 | 25.8 (− 10.6) | 10023997 | 22.4 (− 14.1) | 11416873 | 25.45(− 10.9) | 7499713 | 16.72 (− 19.7) |
0.2–0.4 | 17119188 | 38.17 | 22676112 | 50.6 (12.4) | 24423120 | 54.45 (16.3) | 22892220 | 51.04 (12.9) | 28072332 | 62.59 (24.4) | |
0.4–0.6 | 5247180 | 11.69 | 5837508 | 13.02 (1.3) | 5841072 | 13.02 (1.3) | 5797008 | 12.92 (1.2) | 5320080 | 11.86 (0.2) | |
0.6–0.8 | 3508596 | 7.82 | 3382884 | 7.54 (− 0.3) | 3371868 | 7.52 (− 0.3) | 3367008 | 7.51 (− 0.3) | 2992464 | 6.67 (− 1.2) | |
0.8–1.0 | 2646108 | 5.89 | 1386072 | 3.09 (− 2.8) | 1191672 | 2.66 (− 3.2) | 1378620 | 3.07 (− 2.8) | 967140 | 2.16 (− 3.7) | |
Europe | 0.0–0.2 | 3837780 | 38.77 | 2238372 | 22.6(− 16.2) | 602172.925 | 6.08 (− 32.7) | 1825777 | 18.4 (− 20.3) | 871956.9 | 8.81(− 29.9) |
0.2–0.4 | 5912424 | 59.73 | 7327152 | 74.0 (14.3) | 9000936 | 90.93 (31.2) | 7825104 | 79.05 (19.3) | 8805132 | 88.95 (29.2) | |
0.4–0.6 | 148392 | 1.49 | 332100 | 3.36 (1.9) | 294192 | 2.97 (1.48) | 246708 | 2.49 (1) | 219744 | 2.22 (0.7) | |
0.6–0.8 | 0 | 0 | 972 | 0.01 (0.01) | 1296 | 0.013 (0.01) | 1008 | 0.01 (0.01) | 1764 | 0.017 (0.02) | |
North America | 0.0–0.2 | 12698704 | 52.49 | 10430380 | 43.12 (− 9.4) | 9395200.53 | 38.8 (− 13.7) | 9798581 | 40.51(− 11.9) | 6818105 | 28.18 (− 24.3) |
0.2–0.4 | 7960356 | 32.91 | 10402344 | 43.0 (10.1) | 11370456 | 47.01 (14.1) | 11120976 | 45.97 (13.1) | 14185368 | 58.64 (25.7) | |
0.4–0.6 | 1947564 | 8.05 | 2045412 | 8.46 (0.4) | 2206764 | 9.12 (1.07) | 2039580 | 8.43 (0.4) | 2279988 | 9.43 (1.4) | |
0.6–0.8 | 1002132 | 4.14 | 1077948 | 4.46 (0.3) | 1041012 | 4.30 (0.2) | 1040040 | 4.29 (0.2) | 806112 | 3.33 (− 0.8) | |
0.8–1.0 | 580608 | 2.40 | 233280 | 0.96 (− 1.4) | 175932 | 0.73 (− 1.7) | 190188 | 0.79 (− 1.6) | 99792 | 0.41 (− 1.99) | |
South America | 0.0–0.2 | 394854 | 2.22 | 167406 | 0.94 (− 1.3) | 217626 | 1.23 (− 0.9) | 281454 | 1.58 (− 0.6) | 169350.9 | 0.95 (− 1.3) |
0.2–0.4 | 2048328 | 11.53 | 1895724 | 10.68 (− 0.9) | 1789452 | 10.08 (− 1.5) | 1721088 | 9.69 (− 1.8) | 1569456 | 8.84 (− 2.7) | |
0.4–0.6 | 2308500 | 13.00 | 3383532 | 19.05 (6.1) | 3879900 | 21.85 (8.9) | 3759696 | 21.17 (8.2) | 5913648 | 33.30 (20.3) | |
0.6–0.8 | 4482216 | 25.24 | 5895828 | 33.20 (7.9) | 9160776 | 51.59 (26.4) | 9618588 | 54.17 (28.9) | 8909352 | 50.17 (24.9) | |
0.8–1.0 | 8523792 | 48.00 | 6415200 | 36.1 (− 11.9) | 2709936 | 15.3 (− 32.7) | 2376864 | 13.4 (− 34.6) | 1195884 | 6.73 (− 41.3) | |
Australia | 0.0–0.2 | 504243 | 6.55 | 1401903 | 18.2 (11.7) | 1399131.08 | 18.17 (11.6) | 1400643 | 18.19 (11.6) | 1399635 | 18.17 (11.6) |
0.2–0.4 | 507456 | 6.59 | 288036 | 3.74 (− 2.9) | 1020852 | 13.31 (6.9) | 510552 | 6.63 (0.04) | 1757448 | 22.82 (16.2) | |
0.4–0.6 | 5891616 | 76.49 | 5621616 | 72.99 (− 3.5) | 4903920 | 63.67 (12.8) | 5381208 | 69.87 (− 6.6) | 4178412 | 54.25 (− 22.2) | |
0.6–0.8 | 774432 | 10.06 | 386820 | 5.02 (− 5.0) | 375228 | 4.87 (− 5.2) | 402444 | 5.23 (− 4.8) | 365400 | 4.74 (− 5.3) | |
0.8–1.0 | 23904 | 0.31 | 3276 | 0.04 (− 0.3) | 2520 | 0.03 (− 0.3) | 6804 | 0.09 (− 0.2) | 756 | 0.01 (− 0.3) | |
