Table 3 Cumulative numbers of deaths associated with COVID-19 in the counterfactual scenarios.

Age group (years)	Scenario^a	Estimate (persons)	95% confidence interval	Relative change (%)^b
0–9	Early	–	–	–
	Late	–	–	–
	Elevated	–	–	–
10–19	Early	2	2–2	− 31
	Late	11	10–11	260
	Elevated	2	2–3	− 19
20–29	Early	10	9–11	− 56
	Late	46	44–49	102
	Elevated	11	10–12	− 51
30–39	Early	27	24–29	− 60
	Late	131	124–138	95
	Elevated	30	28–33	− 55
40–49	Early	106	97–115	− 53
	Late	533	504–562	135
	Elevated	122	113–131	− 46
50–59	Early	301	276–326	− 54
	Late	1465	1381–1547	126
	Elevated	348	320–376	− 46
60–69	Early	533	480–587	− 49
	Late	1998	1859–2138	92
	Elevated	663	602–727	− 36
70–79	Early	1445	1296–1601	− 40
	Late	4000	3684–4325	67
	Elevated	1700	1532–1877	− 29
80–89	Early	2135	1874–2410	− 44
	Late	5089	4608–5586	34
	Elevated	2444	2156–2748	− 36
≥ 90	Early	717	565–880	− 61
	Late	1831	1558–2119	− 1
	Elevated	829	661–1009	− 55
Total	Early	5274	4623–5960	− 48
	Late	15,103	13,771–16,474	50
	Elevated	6150	5424–6916	− 39

^aEarly: counterfactual scenario of a vaccination program implemented earlier that the actual schedule; Late: counterfactual scenario of a vaccination program implemented later that the actual schedule; Elevated: counterfactual scenario if the program had been implemented faster with higher vaccination coverage among adolescents and people aged 10–59 years.
^bRelative change represents a comparison between the computed number and observed number (i.e., reporting coverage = 0.25).

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