Figure 4 | Scientific Reports

Figure 4

From: The role of internal variability and external forcing on southwestern Australian rainfall: prospects for very wet or dry years

Figure 4

Statistics relating to the observed changes in CMIP5 (left) and CMIP6 (right) models. The boxplots represent the spread of percentage change from the first ensemble member of CMIP5 (a) and CMIP6 (c) under the scenarios shown. Multi-model median (MMM; line in box), inter-quartile range (IQR; box), whiskers (5th and 95th percentiles) and circles (outliers) shown. The number of models under each scenario and the percentage of models with the same sign as the MMM is shown inside the square brackets for (a) CMIP5 and (c) CMIP6. Lower panels: density functions of percentage changes from CMIP5 (b) and CMIP6 (d) preindustrial control simulations. Pink shading represents the full range, and the dashed lines in purple and black colours mark the two and one standard deviations, respectively. The black bell curves in (b) and (d) represent the internal variability in the present climate and were obtained by shifting the shaded grey curves in (b) and (d) to their left by the magnitude of externally-forced response (i.e., MMM). Observed decline of 20.5% is also marked as a red dashed vertical line.

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