Table 5 Model testing.

From: Mushroom poisoning outbreaks in Guizhou Province, China: a prediction study using SARIMA and Prophet models

 

SARIMA model

Smooth R

RMSE

BIC

P

Exposures

(1, 1, 0) (0, 1, 1)12

0.945

41.536

8.071

0.135

Cases

(1, 1, 0) (0, 1, 1)12

0.919

32.476

7.425

0.075

Hospitalizations

(1, 1, 0) (0, 1, 1)12

0.912

22.524

6.654

0.058

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