Figure 13

The top panel displays the generalized logistic-growth model fit, and 4-week ahead forecast based on the first 10 weeks of the monkeypox (mpox) epidemic in the USA, the week of 12 May 2022 through the week of 14 July 2022. In the top panel, the solid red line is the median model fit, and the dashed lines correspond to the 95% PIs. The blue dots indicate the observed data points. The gray lines correspond to the mean of the model fits obtained from the parametric bootstrapping with 300 bootstrap realizations, and the cyan lines indicate the predictive uncertainty around the model fit. The vertical dashed line separates the 10-week calibration period (left) and the 4-week ahead forecast period (right). The bottom panel shows the corresponding effective reproduction number, \({R}_{t}\), assuming a gamma distribution for the generation interval with a mean of 1.78 weeks and variance of 0.65 weeks²⁵⁰. The solid red line corresponds to the mean effective reproduction number, while the dashed lines correspond to the 95% confidence bounds around the mean.