Table 2 Calibration performance metrics for a 32-week calibration period quantifying how well the fits of the generalized logistic growth model and the Richards model captured the epidemic curve of monkeypox in the USA.

From: GrowthPredict: A toolbox and tutorial-based primer for fitting and forecasting growth trajectories using phenomenological growth models

Model

MAE

MSE

Coverage 95% PI

WIS

Generalized logistic growth model

110.34

17,277.54

100.00

63.39

Richards model

69.59

7595.55

100.00

43.17

  1. The metrics indicate that the Richards model yields a better fit to the data in terms of the MAE, MSE, and WIS while both models achieved a 100% coverage of the 95% prediction interval.
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