Figure 1

Temporal trends of (a) optimal social distancing \(L(t)\), (b) the corresponding incidence of new infections \(\lambda S{\left(1-\theta L\right)}^{2}\), (c) people needing hospitalization (compartment H), and (d) effective reproduction number for different values of prioritization of indirect costs \(\Lambda\). The shaded plane in the H graph represents the maximum hospital capacity. The maximal fraction of people targetable for social distancing is set to \({L}_{max}=0.7\), and the population adherence to social distancing (θ) is set to 70%. All the other parameters and initial conditions are reported in the Methods section. As \(\Lambda\) switches from \(\Lambda =0\) (full prioritization on direct costs) to \(\Lambda =1\) (full prioritization on indirect costs), optimal social distancing undertakes the entire set of switches from elimination to “do nothing” (a).