Table 2 GPT-4’s Justifications of Estimated Probabilities.
From: A comparison of human and GPT-4 use of probabilistic phrases in a coordination game
Context | Investment | Medical |
|---|---|---|
"Low risk" | Estimate: 85% | Estimate:10% |
Justification: When you describe something as "low risk" in the context of investments increasing in value, you're conveying that there's a high likelihood the investments will perform positively or, at the very least, not decline significantly. Given the options provided, and interpreting "low risk" as a high probability of the investments increasing in value, I would estimate the communicated probability to be: 85%. This reflects that there's a high likelihood of positive performance, but as with all investments, there's never a guarantee. Always remember that while terms like "low risk" are commonly understood in finance, their interpretation can still vary somewhat based on individual perception and context." | Justification: 'If I use the phrase "low risk" to describe the probability of a headache occurring as a side effect, I'm suggesting that it's not a common outcome, but there's still some possibility. Given the list of percentages you provided, "10%" seems to be a good representation of what "low risk" might imply in this context." | |
"Not certain" | Estimate: 50% | 95% |
The phrase "not certain" is somewhat ambiguous. While it indicates that there isn't a guarantee, it doesn't provide a clear indication of how likely or unlikely the event is. Given its vagueness, but still leaning toward the idea that there's less confidence than "certain," a neutral probability might be represented. Therefore, I would estimate the communicated probability for "not certain" to be: 50%. However, it's essential to understand that this phrase leaves a lot to interpretation, and different people might infer different probabilities from it | The phrase "not certain" is ambiguous and indicates that there's uncertainty, but it doesn't necessarily provide a clear indication of how probable or improbable the event is. It could be slightly probable or highly probable, but just not 100% certain. Given the options provided and the context, "95%" might be the best choice to convey that there's a high likelihood, but it's not certain. However, it's important to note that the phrase "not certain" doesn't inherently align with any specific percentage; the chosen value is more of an educated guess based on the given options |
