Table 2 New and avoided crop production, and associated area and fertiliser nitrogen (N) application changes, associated with six scenarios of soybean cultivation across agroclimatic regions and fractions of areas indicated in Table 1. Also shown are net production and carbon opportunity cost greenhouse gas emissions savings associated with each of the scenarios, including avoided animal production (and associated animal feed crop production). Sc-1 and Sc-2 represent soybean cultivation on 50% of EU set-aside at current or potential yields from Table 1, respectively. Sc-3 and Sc-4 represent replacement of 10% of wheat cultivation (by area) with soy cultivation in regions where soybean yields of at least 3 t ha−1 could be achieved, at current or potential yields, respectively. Sc-5 and Sc-6 are derivatives of Sc-3 and Sc-4, assuming that half of the European soybean production displaces animal protein, equally split across chicken, pork and milk.
From: European soybean to benefit people and the environment
Scenario | European soybean | Imported soybean | Displaced wheat | Barley feed | Maize feed | Rapeseed feed | Sunflower feed | Cropland area | Fertiliser-N | Production GHG | Carbon opportunity cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mt year−1 | Mha | Mt year−1 | Mt CO2e year−1 | ||||||||
Sc-1 | 9 | − 9 | 0 | − 1.8 | − 13 | − 24 | |||||
Sc-2 | 13 | − 13 | 0 | − 2.7 | − 19 | − 35 | |||||
Sc-3 | 11 | − 11 | 26 | 1.0 | − 16 | 13 | |||||
Sc-4 | 23 | − 23 | 34 | − 0.1 | − 31 | − 2 | |||||
Sc-5 | 11 | − 16 | 13 | − 0.7 | − 42 | − 0.8 | − 0.3 | − 6.5 | − 0.6 | − 47 | − 86 |
Sc-6 | 23 | − 31 | 10 | − 1.3 | − 83 | − 1.5 | − 0.6 | − 15.0 | − 1.2 | − 93 | − 198 |