Table 4 The best model for each prediction case based on AIC and BIC (test period #2).
From: Forecasting the spread of COVID-19 based on policy, vaccination, and Omicron data
Criterion | Prediction case | Best model | Number of parameters | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
AIC | Confirmed cases | Raw | y ~ model * cov + cov * omicron + omicron * model + model * cov * omicron + (1 | country) | 57 |
Smoothed | y ~ omicron + (1|country) | 4 | ||
Daily deaths | Raw | y ~ omicron + (1|country) | 4 | |
Smoothed | y ~ model + (1 | country) | 8 | ||
ICU patients | Raw | y ~ model * cov + (1 | country) | 27 | |
Smoothed | y ~ model * cov + omicron + (1 | country) | 28 | ||
BIC | Confirmed cases | Raw | y ~ omicron + (1|country) | 4 |
Smoothed | y ~ omicron + (1|country) | 4 | ||
Daily deaths | Raw | y ~ omicron + (1|country) | 4 | |
Smoothed | y ~ model + (1 | country) | 8 | ||
ICU patients | Raw | y ~ model + (1 | country) | 7 | |
Smoothed | y ~ model + (1 | country) | 7 | ||
