Figure 5

Statistical assessment of CMIP6 MME simulations against station observations: CMIP6 MME (a) bias, (b) correlation (ρ), (c) variance similarity (η) and (d) normalized error variance (α) for the daily maximum (TMAX), minimum (TMIN) and mean (TMEAN) air temperatures (bias in K), daily-mean specific humidity (QVAP; g kg⁻¹), daily precipitation (PREC; mm day⁻¹), and daily-mean 10-m wind speed (WSPD; m s⁻¹) and sea-level pressure (MSLP; hPa) averaged over 1980–2014 at the location of 206 NOAA GSOD stations in the MENA region (13° W–60° E, 15°–40° N). The scores are given for the boreal summer (JJA; red) and winter (DJF; blue) seasons. The verification diagnostics are computed as follows: at the location of each station and for a given season, the skill scores are extracted using all the days in the historical period. The box plots display the scores for the summer and winter seasons, giving the 5th, 25th, 50th (median), 75th and 95th percentiles. The correspondent spatial scores are given in Supplementary Fig. 6.