Figure 6

The predictive accuracy, discriminatory ability, clinical utility, and risk stratification capacity of the nomogram for predicting AFS probabilities were evaluated using the tROC curves, calibration plots, DCA curves, and KM survival curves. (A) The tROC curves indicated stable predictive accuracy of the nomogram over time in the primary cohort (blue) and the validation cohort (red). (B–D) The ROC curves of the nomogram for predicting 24-month (B), 30-month (C), and 36-month (D) AFS probabilities based on the primary cohort (blue) and the validation cohort (red). (E–H) Calibration plots exhibited a robust pertinence between the actual probability (y-axis) and the predicted probability (x-axis) of 24-month AFS in the primary cohort (E) and the validation cohort (F). There also existed a high consistency between the actual probability (y-axis) and the predicted probability (x-axis) of 30-month AFS in the primary cohort (G) and the validation cohort (H). The grey line represents the ideal fit. The blue or red line reflects the nomogram prediction, of which a closer fit to the grey line suggests better performance. (I,J) DCA of the nomogram in the primary cohort (blue) and the validation cohort (red) at 24-month (I) and 30-month (J) follow up. The black dotted line represents the screen-none scheme. The red or blue solid line represents the screen-all strategy. The red or blue dotted line represents the nomogram. (K,L) KM survival curves demonstrating the AFS probabilities in the primary cohort (K) and the validation cohort (L) with individual survival numbers and time data. tROC: time-dependent receiver operating characteristic; DCA: decision curve analysis; AUC: area under the curve.