Table 1 Optimal fingerprinting estimations of each forcing to the change in surface air temperature.

From: Tracing human influence on rising surface air temperature in Venezuela

 

NAT

Ant

Aaer

GHG

LU

(a) Industrial Period (1955–2005) (\(^{\circ }\)C)

 HadCRUT5

0.02 (− 0.04 to 0.08)

0.62 (0.40 to 0.85)

− 0.59 (− 0.93 to − 0.25)

0.36 (0.10–0.62)

0.52 (0.36–0.68)

(b) Entire Future Period (2006–2100) (\(^{\circ }\)C)

  

0.76 (0.09 to 0.43)

0.53 (− 0.46 to 1.53)

0.62 (0.20 to 1.04)

 

(c) Near Future (2010–2040) (\(^{\circ }\)C)

  

0.04 (− 0.37 to 0.46)

0.11 (− 0.28 to 0.52)

0.53 (0.23 to 0.84)

 

(d) Mid Future (2040–2070) (\(^{\circ }\)C)

  

0.13 (− 0.10 to 0.38)

− 0.01 (− 0.28 to 0.25)

0.12 (− 0.11 to 0.36)

 

(e) Far Future (2070–2100) (\(^{\circ }\)C)

  

0.02 (− 0.04 to 0.10)

0.03 (− 0.03 to 0.10)

0.05 (− 0.01 to 0.11)

 
  1. The table presents multimodel estimates of attributable temperature change in degrees Celsius between the periods 1955–2005, and 2006–2100, with respect to 1850–1900. It includes \(\beta\) as the vector of coefficients, and 5–95% confidence intervals in brackets for attributable warming. (a) The attributable warming is derived by using HadCRUT5 observational data and various forcings, such as Natural Forces (NAT), Anthropogenic Aerosols (Ant), Aaer, Greenhouse Gases (GHG), and Land Use (LU) signals. (b) The attributable warming is derived from the RCP4.5 analysis for various forcings, such as Anthropogenic Aerosols (Aaer), and Greenhouse Gases (GHG) signals for entire future period. (c, d, and e) The attributable warming is derived from the RCP4.5 analysis for various forcings for near, mid, and far future respectively.
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