Table 1 Projected timing when sea-level magnitudes of 0.5 m and 1.0 m will be surpassed at the Bilbao tide gauge station under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios.

From: Vertical land motion is underestimated in sea-level projections from the Oka estuary, northern Spain

 

0.5 m

0.5 m

VLM updated

1.0 m

1.0 m

VLM updated

SSP119

2120 (2073–2300)

2102 (2067–2300)

2256 (2148–2300)

2256 (2135–2300)

SSP245

2090 (2068–2131)

2080 (2064–2113)

2161 (2115–2293)

2146 (2108–2293)

SSP585

2079 (2063–2100)

2072 (2060–2086)

2121 (2096–2173)

2115 (2092–2173)

  1. The projected timings are presented as per original IPCC AR63 and after the vertical land motion (VLM) update of − 0.88 ± 0.03 mm/yr are incorporated (“VLM updated”). The numbers in italic (e.g., 2300) refer to the years beyond 2150 when projected rate and magnitude of sea-level rise are not provided in IPCC AR63.
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