Table 2 Comparison of projected magnitudes of sea-level rise between the Spanish National Climate Change Adaptation Plan (NCCAP) and IPCC AR6 at the Bilbao tide gauge station.

From: Vertical land motion is underestimated in sea-level projections from the Oka estuary, northern Spain

NCCAP

IPCC AR6

 

Bilbao TG

 

Bilbao TG

Increase relative to NCCAP

2026–2045

Magnitude (m)

2035

Magnitude (m) (VLM updated)

 

RCP4.5

0.102

SSP2-4.5

0.141 (0.162)

38% (59%)

RCP8.5

0.106

SSP5-8.5

0.148 (0.167)

40% (58%)

2081–2100

 

2090

  

RCP4.5

0.360

SSP2-4.5

0.511 (0.569)

42% (58%)

RCP8.5

0.507

SSP5-8.5

0.658 (0.715)

30% (41%)

  1. Projected magnitudes of sea-level rise (50th percentile value) from the Spanish NCCAP under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios by 2026–2045 and by 2081–2100, compared with the IPCC AR6 sea-level projections under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios by 2035 and by 2090, respectively. The values in brackets are IPCC AR6 projections using the updated VLM rate of − 0.88 ± 0.03 mm/yr. The comparison plot with likely and very likely ranges is shown in Fig. 5. We have standardized the Spanish NCCAP projection to the same baseline as IPCC AR6 of 1995–2014 following ref.55.
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