Fig. 5

Effect sizes and statistical significance of differences of mean Q0 during major El Niño events compared to neutral phase values during the typical southern Africa rainy season (November-April) across tropical and subtropical agroecological zones (AEZs). Red and blue tiles indicate positive and negative effect sizes respectively. Asterisks denote significance levels: * = p ≤ 0.05, ** = p ≤ 0.01, *** = p ≤ 0.001. Cohen’s d effect size classifications: negligible: d < 0.2, small: 0.2 ≤ d < 0.5, medium: 0.5 ≤ d < 0.8, large: d ≥ 0.8. Note difference of legend scale compared to Fig. 2, reflective of higher detected effect sizes in this analysis.