Fig. 1

Representation of the dynamic baseline concept and the mean MME annual SOC change and annual N₂O emissions difference between scenarios. (A) The counterfactual scenario dynamic baselines (red), as well as the regenerative practice lines (green), account for yearly climate variability and site-specific soil properties, while the static baseline reflects the assumption of steady-state conditions. Three different generic cases are provided as examples of potential errors if changes are compared to static baseline and not the dynamic baseline. (B) MME annual soil organic carbon change (Mg ha^-1 yr^-1, 0–30 cm) and (C) annual N₂O emissions (kg ha^-1 yr^-1) as the difference between Scenario 4 (NT FN CC, no-till with full nitrogen fertilization and cover crops) and Scenario 1 (CT FN, conventional till with full nitrogen fertilization). Each UID included in the study (n = 40,000) is reported as a single-colored dot. The gray density histograms represent the distribution of UIDs values across the US Midwest cropland Maps were created using RStudio v2025.05.0.496 https://www.r-project.org.