Table 2 The simulated impact of a range of possible intensities of generative AI-related capital deepening on labour underutilisation and proxies for demand.
From: Generative AI may create a socioeconomic tipping point through labour displacement
Disposable income per capita USD | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Scenario | Mean reduction against the baseline | Mean % red | Median % red | Lower 95% int | Upper 95% int |
a. K-L ratio 4% increase per annum | 5,035.13 | 12.74 | 12.73 | 7.29 | 18.06 |
b. K-L ratio 7% increase per annum | 10,244.77 | 25.96 | 25.82 | 20.61 | 31.76 |
c. K-L ratio 10% increase per annum | 12,630.67 | 32.01 | 32.06 | 26.06 | 37.84 |
Consumption index | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Scenario | Mean reduction | Mean % red | Median % red | Lower 95% int | Upper 95% int |
a. K-L ratio 4% increase per annum | 0.0674 | 7.34 | 7.59 | -0.23* | 14.79 |
b. K-L ratio 7% increase per annum | 0.1939 | 21.21 | 21.03 | 13.56 | 28.33 |
c. K-L ratio 10% increase per annum | 0.2527 | 27.66 | 27.92 | 20.14 | 34.80 |
Underutilised persons | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Scenario | Mean increase | Mean % inc | Median % inc | Lower 95% int | Upper 95% int |
a. K-L ratio 4% increase per annum | 1,036,650 | 37.63 | 36.76 | 21.03 | 57.97 |
b. K-L ratio 7% increase per annum | 2,758,013 | 99.76 | 98.38 | 70.61 | 137.52 |
c. K-L ratio 10% increase per annum | 3,808,004 | 137.69 | 136.99 | 98.13 | 179.70 |
