Table 1 Main variables in M&E’s original reduced-form specification.

Count of violent conflict events

conflict

Region × month

ACLED (2011)³⁵

Temperature anomaly

TA

0.5° × 0.5° grid × month (average of daily maximum Ts)

a. T interpolated to region centers by kriging;

b. anomaly computed w.r.t. 1980–2009;

c. anomaly averaged over 3 months

CRU TS 3.1 (2008)³⁶

Drought length

DL

count of consecutive months with positive TA values

CRU TS 3.1 (2008)³⁶

Precipitation anomaly

PA

0.5° × 0.5° grid × month (total precipitation P)

a. P interpolated to region centers by kriging;

b. anomaly computed w.r.t. 1983–2009;

c. anomaly averaged over 3 months

CRU TS 3.1 (2008)³⁶