Fig. 4

Performance and residual analysis of three cluster-specific multiple linear regression models predicting weighted MCCD rates, (A–C) Residuals vs. predicted plots for clusters 1, 2, and 3, showing random scatter around zero, supporting linearity and homoscedasticity, (D–F) Histograms of standardized residuals for each cluster, displaying roughly normal, bell-shaped distributions with ~ 95% within ± 2 SD. Residual ranges: − 25 to + 28 (Cluster 1), − 70 to + 140 (Cluster 2), and − 45 to + 40 (Cluster 3), (G–I) Multiple linear regression analysis scatter plots illustrating the baseline MCCD-rates across clusters when healthcare variables are zero. Cluster 1, with 18% MCCD, has the lowest intercept (9.63, SE = 1.04, p < 0.001); Cluster 2, with 63% MCCD, has a higher intercept (54.5, SE = 8.4, p < 0.001), and Cluster 3, with 60%, has an intercept of 29.2 (SE = 8.23, p < 0.001), placing it between clusters 1 and 2.