Fig. 10 | Scientific Reports

Fig. 10

From: Forecasting cashew production in India using a hybrid machine learning framework with STL decomposition, ensemble methods, and global trade network analysis

Fig. 10

India cashew export forecast (2021–2025) with historical context (2017–2020). The Gradient Boosting model projects continued gradual decline in export volumes, extrapolating the observed -4.1% annual trend. Historical data (black circles, solid line) show declining pattern from 4350 MT (2017) to 3900 MT (2020). Forecast (red squares, dashed line) predicts decline from 3753 MT (2021) to 3,140 MT (2025). Shaded region represents 95% confidence intervals derived from linear regression prediction standard errors. Confidence bands widen over time, reflecting increasing forecast uncertainty at longer horizons. Vertical dashed line marks forecast origin (2020).

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