Table 5 Ablation of decay-blending coefficient α on averaged validation errors (2019–2024).

From: A machine learning framework for long-term forecasting of spare part demand in end-of-life product scenarios

α

MAE

RMSE

Safe MAPE (%)

Δ Safe MAPE vs. α = 0 (%)

0.0

118.2

762.4

5.18

–

0.2

115.9

741.4

4.36

–15.8

0.4

120.7

785.9

4.92

–5.0

0.6

130.3

830.6

5.74

+ 10.8

0.8

141.9

902.2

6.51

+ 25.7

1.0

155.0

978.4

7.04

+ 36.0

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