Fig. 3

Sobol first-order and total-order sensitivity indices. (a) First-order (\(S_1\)) and (b) total-order (\(S_T\)) indices quantify the relative contribution of each parameter to variance in the oscillatory regime probability (\(p_{\text {cycle}}\)). Higher \(S_T\) values for \(\alpha\), \(\eta\), and \(\omega\) highlight the dominant nonlinear and interactive controls of by-product production, inhibition, and nutrient-linked detoxification on bloom stability.