Fig. 4
From: Dengue dynamics, predictions, and future increase under changing monsoon climate in India
(a) Comparison of weekly cumulative dengue mortalities in Pune (x-axis) and the corresponding mortality predictions from the dengue model (y-axis) during the test period 2004 and 2015. The model shows good prediction skill, with a statistically significant correlation coefficient of r = 0.77 (p < 0.05) and a low normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE) of 0.52 between actual and predicted dengue mortalities. These results indicate that the model can effectively predict dengue mortality in Pune. (b) Relative importance of each predictor variable in predicting the dengue mortality in Pune (variable importance). The variable importance of temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, active days, and break days are 41%, 29%, 20%, 7%, and 3%, respectively. Monsoon rainfall and its variability together account for 39% of the variable importance.
