Fig. 2
From: Future climate change and the distributional shift of the common vampire bat, Desmodus rotundus
Model calibration and pattern analysis. A Model calibration: We used filtered occurrence locations and environmental variables from the WorldClim database62, with a calibration area of 200 km2 (ten times species home range)67,68 around the occurrence locations to calibrate MaxEnt models. The best model was used to estimate current suitability for Desmodus rotundus. We then projected suitability to future climate change projections across six global circulation models (GCMs), four possible future shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs one, two, three, and five), and three time periods (2040, 2060, and 2080). B Potential future distributions: We used a minimum training presences threshold to isolate areas with suitable climates for D. rotundus based on our model’s projections. We used this threshold to create binary rasters of future scenarios to explore possible changes in maximum and minimum latitude of projected occurrence (i.e., range shift north or south), total area (km2) predicted as suitable for occurrence, and maximum projected elevation (i.e., range shift up mountain ranges into previously temperate areas). Created in BioRender. Van de Vuurst, P. (2025) https://BioRender.com/z34g286.
