Table 2 The causal effects of skin temperature on conflict events across three different paths and varying distances.

From: Applying causality to environmental security in Iraq

Distance

Temperature → Population → Violence against civilians → Battles → Conflicts

Temperature → Battles → Conflicts

Temperature → Population → Violence against civilians → Conflicts

0 km

1.39 (0.83)

47.35*** (9.36)

2.93* (1.25)

3–27 km

0.13 (0.17)

63.34*** (7.50)

0.69 (0.72)

27–40 km

1.29* (0.65)

44.88*** (7.31)

2.00** (0.82)

40–50 km

0.68 (0.52)

52.46*** (8.03)

2.91** (1.02)

50–59 km

0.52 (0.42)

41.22*** (6.28)

3.49** (1.28)

59–66 km

0.19 (0.26)

35.14*** (6.93)

1.66* (0.70)

66–73 km

0.87 (0.54)

55.63*** (7.76)

1.66*** (0.54)

73–80 km

0.58 (0.52)

68.62*** (8.88)

2.20* (1.04)

80–86 km

0.30 (0.48)

37.21*** (6.74)

3.70*** (1.18)

86–92 km

0.36 (0.27)

45.67*** (6.25)

1.46 (0.75)

92–99 km

2.05** (0.74)

36.79*** (5.86)

2.30*** (0.64)

99–104 km

1.31 (0.71)

58.73*** (8.06)

3.36* (1.41)

104–110 km

0.58 (0.56)

77.91*** (9.29)

2.79** (1.06)

110–116 km

2.15** (0.76)

24.85*** (5.65)

3.19*** (0.97)

116–121 km

0.95 (0.52)

42.72*** (7.28)

2.12* (0.98)

121–126 km

1.73* (0.70)

28.14*** (5.34)

3.39*** (1.01)

126–132 km

1.13* (0.51)

47.13*** (6.73)

1.82** (0.69)

132–137 km

0.82* (0.39)

30.58*** (6.75)

2.25*** (0.76)

137–142 km

1.53* (0.61)

37.31*** (6.87)

2.45*** (0.74)

142–147 km

1.58 (0.72)

49.34*** (7.62)

3.88*** (1.10)

147–152 km

0.35 (0.24)

29.54*** (5.69)

0.76 (0.49)

152–158 km

0.97* (0.45)

31.38*** (6.18)

2.28*** (0.71)

158–163 km

0.63 (0.51)

53.10*** (7.72)

2.55*** (0.90)

163–168 km

1.04 (0.56)

39.35*** (6.68)

3.04** (1.14)

168–173 km

0.71 (0.48)

30.67*** (6.47)

1.39 (0.83)

173–178 km

1.96* (0.87)

49.37*** (7.56)

2.85*** (0.78)

178–183 km

1.14 (0.65)

38.80*** (7.92)

1.93* (0.82)

183–188 km

1.84* (0.84)

43.89*** (7.36)

2.84** (1.08)

188–193 km

0.52 (0.50)

47.06*** (6.84)

2.79*** (0.85)

193–198 km

1.79* (0.90)

44.92*** (7.56)

2.12** (0.74)

  1. The table presents standardized causal estimates of the effects of skin temperature on conflict events across three distinct paths along a range of distance bins.. The corresponding standard errors, which reflect the uncertainty of these estimates, are shown in parentheses. Statistical significance levels: 5%: *; 1%: **; 0.1%: ***.
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