Abstract
Conflicts in different regions of the world have had significant consequences on electric power supply appliances. This study was conducted in Ethiopia’s Aksum town low-voltage (LV) electric supply lines using reliability indices, including SAIDI, SAIFI, CAIDI, and EENS, before, during, and after the post-period. Accordingly, the findings indicate that severe reliability problems occurred due to the conflict, which resulted in power interruptions (both forced and operational), infrastructure damage, the displacement of skilled engineers, and inadequate recovery efforts. The study introduced a mixed auditing mechanism, analyzed historical power outage data, and evaluated performance-based reliability indices. Results indicate that before the conflict relatively stable power supply, with manageable outage durations and energy losses. However, during the two-year conflict (2020–2022), the average SAIDI value peaked at 1,626.4 h, the CAIDI flowed to 2,507.31 h, and EENS intensified to 10,480.52 MWh, reflecting significant disruptions. Six months post-conflict, significant recovery efforts improved these metrics, though supply stability challenges persist. The resulting reliability of the post-conflict reliability indices exceeds international benchmarks, with SAIDI over 1–5 h, SAIFI above 0.5, and CAIDI over 5 h. Despite post-conflict improvements, high SAIFI values show supply instability. Strengthen infrastructure, improve maintenance, and enhance auditing for reliable power.
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Data availability
All data generated or analysed during this study are included in this published article [and its supplementary information files].
Abbreviations
- CAIDI:
-
Customer Average Interruption Duration Index
- DPEF:
-
Distribution Permanent Earth Fault
- DPSC:
-
Distribution Permanent Short Circuit
- DTSC:
-
Distribution Temporary Short Circuit
- DTEF:
-
Distribution Temporary Earth Fault
- EC:
-
Ethiopian Calendar
- EEP:
-
Ethiopian Electric Power
- EEU:
-
Ethiopian Electric Utility
- EENS:
-
Expected Energy Not Supplied
- L-G-F:
-
Line to Ground Fault
- L-L-F:
-
Line to Line Fault
- L-L-G-F:
-
Double Line to Ground Fault
- LV:
-
Low Voltage
- MVA:
-
Mega Volt-Ampere
- PRA:
-
Power Reliability Auditing
- SAIDI:
-
System Average Interruption Duration Index
- SAIFI:
-
System Average Interruption Frequency Index
- AICD:
-
World Bank Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic
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Acknowledgements
Aksum University and its Electrical Power Engineering staff supported this research. We also gratefully acknowledge the Ethiopian Electric Utility (EEU) Shire district staff—Amanuel M., Niguse G., Abrha Y., and Hawerya G.—for their valuable collaboration and contributions.
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Funded by Aksum University, Aksum, Ethiopia.
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(A) Hagos Gebrekidan Berhe: He is the principal investigator for this research article. And identify the problems, indicate objectives, review related works, develop a method, compute results, analyze, and discuss. (B) Dr.Milkias Birhanu Tuka (PhD): He has contributed as an Editor and reviewer in the work. (C) Gebrehewot Miruts Kebedew: He has contributed to this research work as a co-investigator. Participated in the activities of the work.
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Berhe, H.G., Tuka, M.B. & Kebedew, G.M. Assessing post-conflict electric power supply reliability in low voltage distribution networks of Aksum Ethiopia. Sci Rep (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-35599-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-35599-y
