Abstract
The maritime sector’s transition toward decarbonization cannot occur in isolation, rather it will be tied to broader transformations in energy, economic, and societal systems. Yet, most existing studies often overlook this integrated perspective, focusing primarily on sector-specific strategies without considering broader societal changes and energy availability on a global scale. To address this gap, this study integrates the MariTeam ship emission model into the MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM integrated assessment framework. Through this approach, we assess how climate scenarios may influence the maritime sector’s trajectory toward achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, in line with the International Maritime Organization (IMO) targets. Our findings indicate that action before 2030 is crucial and it can be achieved through combining four key solutions: improvements in energy efficiency, biofuels, liquefied hydrogen, and ammonia. Furthermore, the results suggest that the maritime sector could have access to enough renewables to achieve substantial emissions reductions with increase in final product costs ranging from 2 to 30% (interquartile range) with variations across products and regions. On average, cost increases are estimated at 10.2% for Global North countries and 13.3% for Global South countries. This analysis highlights the urgency and scale of transformation required for the maritime industry to meet the IMO’s net-zero ambitions and align with broader global sustainability goals.
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Data availability
The AIS data used in modelling the international shipping fleet were provided by Kystverket (Norwegian Coastal Administration) and therefore are restricted to the third party and used under license in this study. Port calls and ship data (Sea-web Ships) has been provided by IHS Markit. Weather data ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) was provided by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and produced and maintained by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Trade data used in the gravity model, including the BACI database (http://www.cepii.fr/CEPII) and UN Comtrade database (https://comtrade.un.org/data), are publicly available. The MESSAGEix model is open-source and the underlying data and code is entirely made available (https://docs.messageix.org/) 62,63 . The stock-flow model is available in its repository (https://github.com/IndEcol/ODYM). Other data and model aspects are available from the corresponding author upon request.
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Acknowledgements
This study is part of the research projects CLIMMS – Climate Change Mitigation in the Maritime Sector (Research Council of Norway (RCN) project number 294771), SFI Smart Maritime – Norwegian Centre for Improved Energy-Efficiency and Reduced Emissions from the Maritime Sector (RCN project number 237917), Bio4Fuels (RCN project number 257622), and Bio4-7Seas (RCN project 302276).The AIS data were provided by Kystverket (Norwegian Coastal Administration). Port calls and ship data (Sea-web Ships) has been provided by IHS Markit. Weather data ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) was provided by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and produced and maintained by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The computations were performed on resources provided by the Industrial Ecology Digital Laboratory. Data storage is provided by Sigma2 NS9576K. OF, FM and VK were supported by the Energy Demand Changes Induced by Technological and Social Innovations (EDITS) network, an initiative coordinated by the Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE) and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and funded by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), Japan.
Funding
Open access funding provided by NTNU Norwegian University of Science and Technology (incl St. Olavs Hospital - Trondheim University Hospital). DK, AHS, and HM have been funded by the research projects CLIMMS – Climate Change Mitigation in the Maritime Sector (Research Council of Norway (RCN) project number 294771), SFI Smart Maritime – Norwegian Centre for Improved Energy-Efficiency and Reduced Emissions from the Maritime Sector (RCN project number 237917), Bio4Fuels (RCN project number 257622), and Bio4-7Seas (RCN project 302276). OF, FM and VK were supported by the Energy Demand Changes Induced by Technological and Social Innovations (EDITS) network, an initiative coordinated by the Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE) and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and funded by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), Japan.
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DK, AHS, HM, VK conceived and designed the research experiment. DK, OF, FM have developed the linkage between the MariTeam and MESSAGEix models. DK, AHS, HM, VK, OF contributed on the discussion and analysis of results. DK wrote the initial manuscript, which was reviewed by HM, VK, and AHS.
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Kramel, D., Krey, V., Fricko, O. et al. Maritime sector pathways toward net-zero emissions within global energy scenarios. Sci Rep (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-35909-4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-35909-4
