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Patient profiles, incidence and trends of lung cancer in Ethiopia from 2012 to 2023 using a cancer registry
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  • Published: 24 January 2026

Patient profiles, incidence and trends of lung cancer in Ethiopia from 2012 to 2023 using a cancer registry

  • Nathan Estifanos  ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-5598-22061,2,
  • Gudina Egata1,
  • Adamu Addissie1,
  • Tewodros H. Gebremariam3,4,
  • Rahel Argaw Kebede5,
  • Hanan Yusuf5,
  • Mathewos Assefa6,
  • Solomon Asmare7,
  • Ahmedin Jemal8 &
  • …
  • Negussie Deyessa1 

Scientific Reports , Article number:  (2026) Cite this article

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We are providing an unedited version of this manuscript to give early access to its findings. Before final publication, the manuscript will undergo further editing. Please note there may be errors present which affect the content, and all legal disclaimers apply.

Subjects

  • Medical research
  • Oncology

Abstract

Lung cancer epidemiology varies widely across countries, yet local data remain scarce. This study analyzed 882 lung cancer cases registered in the Addis Ababa population-based cancer registry from 2012 to 2023 to characterize patient profiles, incidence rates, and trends. We used descriptive statistics, binary and multinomial logistic regression, Poisson regression, and joinpoint regression. We found the crude median age at diagnosis was 56 years (adjusted: 60 years), with one in four patients diagnosed before 45. Adenocarcinoma was the most common histological subtype (34.8%), significantly associated with females (AOR: 1.64, 95% CI: 1.21–2.21), followed by squamous cell carcinoma (8.8%). Carcinoma not otherwise specified (NOS) accounted for 45.2% of cases. Alarmingly, 93% of patients were diagnosed at a late stage. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) was 3.1 per 100,000 (3.3 for males, 2.8 for females), with a male-to-female incidence rate ratio (IRR) of 1.13, showing a nonsignificant decline over time. The incidence rate increased with age and varied significantly across sub-cities (1.5–2.9 per 100,000). While the overall ASIR trend remained stable, sex-specific trends showed a 3% annual increase in female crude incidence rates, whereas male rates remained unchanged significantly. These findings highlight the urgent need for targeted lung cancer prevention, early detection, and treatment strategies tailored to local epidemiological patterns.

Data availability

The manuscript and its supporting materials encompass all relevant information. Upon reasonable request, the corresponding author provides the raw data used in the study with consent from the Addis Ababa Cancer Registry.

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Acknowledgements

We express our gratitude to the Addis Ababa Cancer Registry staff for their collaboration. We also thank the American Cancer Society and Martin Luther University of Halle, Germany, for their financial support of the registry. Special thanks go to Mathiwos Wondu-YeEthiopia Cancer Society, the lead implementer, and the Ethiopian Thoracic Society (ETS), which carried out the research component of Ethiopia’s multinational lung cancer diagnosis and control project.

Funding

This is part of Ethiopia’s multinational lung cancer diagnosis and control project, with data collection costs covered by Addis Ababa University and the Bristol Myers Squibb Foundation. We used secondary data for this study. The study’s design, data collection and analysis, article preparation, and publication decision were all done independently of the funders.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

    Nathan Estifanos, Gudina Egata, Adamu Addissie & Negussie Deyessa

  2. College of Medicine and Health Science, Wollo University, Dessie, Ethiopia

    Nathan Estifanos

  3. Division of Pulmonary Sciences & Critical Care, Department of Medicine, Denver Health Medical Center, Denver, CO, USA

    Tewodros H. Gebremariam

  4. University of Colorado, Anschutz School of Medicine, Aurora, CO, USA

    Tewodros H. Gebremariam

  5. College of Health Sciences, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

    Rahel Argaw Kebede & Hanan Yusuf

  6. Oncology Department, School of Medicine, College of Health Sciences, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

    Mathewos Assefa

  7. Addis Ababa Cancer Registry, Addis-Ababa-University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

    Solomon Asmare

  8. Department of Surveillance and Health Services Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA, USA

    Ahmedin Jemal

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Contributions

N.E. conceptualization, data curation, software, formal analysis, investigation, methodology, writing the original draft and review, and visualization. G.E. and N.D. participated in the conceptualization, methodology, supervision, validation, and revision of the original draft. A.A., T.H.G., H.Y., M.A., and S.A. participated in the draft manuscript’s supervision, validation, review, and editing. A.J. participated in the draft manuscript’s validation, review, and editing. All the authors have read and approved the final manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Nathan Estifanos.

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Estifanos, N., Egata, G., Addissie, A. et al. Patient profiles, incidence and trends of lung cancer in Ethiopia from 2012 to 2023 using a cancer registry. Sci Rep (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-36944-x

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  • Received: 10 February 2025

  • Accepted: 19 January 2026

  • Published: 24 January 2026

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-36944-x

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Keywords

  • Cancer
  • Lung cancer
  • Patient profiles
  • Incidence
  • Trends
  • Ethiopia
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