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A scenario-based framework for spatial assessment of multi-source renewable energy parks: a case study of Makran region in Iran
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  • Published: 27 January 2026

A scenario-based framework for spatial assessment of multi-source renewable energy parks: a case study of Makran region in Iran

  • Zeinab Sazvar1,
  • Saman Nadizadeh Shorabeh2,3,
  • Hamide Mahmoodi4 &
  • …
  • Mohammad Karimi Firozjaei4 

Scientific Reports , Article number:  (2026) Cite this article

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Subjects

  • Energy science and technology
  • Engineering
  • Environmental sciences
  • Environmental social sciences

Abstract

This study develops a scenario-based spatial assessment framework to support integrated planning and deployment of multiple renewable energy power plants, toward achieving sustainable energy objectives. Focusing on the Makran region in Iran, a location with diverse renewable energy resources and strategic geographic relevance, we analyzed the potential for solar, wind, and geothermal energy development. The framework incorporates 22 spatial criteria, including production capacity, installation cost–influencing factors, infrastructure accessibility, demand-influencing factors, and environmental impacts and 16 spatial constraints. Using the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) method, a range of decision-making scenarios from highly pessimistic to highly optimistic was simulated. The results revealed that in the most pessimistic scenario, high-potential areas accounted for 9.14% (solar and wind) and 10.96% (geothermal) of the region. Under the most optimistic scenario, these figures increased to 20.25%, 23.6%, and 30.13%, respectively. This framework demonstrates a transferable, spatially explicit approach to support sustainable energy technology planning and reduce investment risks.

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Data availability

The datasets generated and analysed during the current study are available for download from the link: https://zenodo.org/records/17316371.

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Acknowledgements

We acknowledge the support from the “Comprehensive Plan for Intelligent Transportation Planning and Sustainable Logistics in the Makran Coasts with a Focus on the Development of Fourth-Generation Ports” Projects under Grant 143/32908 for this work.

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This research received no external funding.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Industrial Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

    Zeinab Sazvar

  2. Department of Remote Sensing and GIS, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

    Saman Nadizadeh Shorabeh

  3. Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Organization (SATBA), Tehran, Iran

    Saman Nadizadeh Shorabeh

  4. College of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

    Hamide Mahmoodi & Mohammad Karimi Firozjaei

Authors
  1. Zeinab Sazvar
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  2. Saman Nadizadeh Shorabeh
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Manuscript Title: A Scenario-Based Framework for Spatial Assessment of Multi-Source Renewable Energy Parks: A case study of Makran region in Iran Authors: Zeinab Sazvar, Saman Nadizadeh Shorabeh, Hamide Mahmoodi, Mohammad Karimi Firozjaei* All listed authors have made substantial contributions to the conception or design of the work, the acquisition, analysis, or interpretation of data, and the writing or critical revision of the manuscript. All authors have approved the final version of the manuscript and agree to be accountable for all aspects of the work. Author Contributions: Zeinab Sazvar: Conceptualization, Data curation, Methodology, Writing—review & editing Saman Nadizadeh Shorabeh: Conceptualization, Data curation, Methodology, Validation, Visualization, Writing—original draft Hamide Mahmoodi: Data curation, Methodology, Writing—original draft Mohammad Karimi Firozjaei: Conceptualization, Methodology, Software, Visualization, Investigation, Writing—review & editing.

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Correspondence to Mohammad Karimi Firozjaei.

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Sazvar, Z., Shorabeh, S.N., Mahmoodi, H. et al. A scenario-based framework for spatial assessment of multi-source renewable energy parks: a case study of Makran region in Iran. Sci Rep (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-37474-2

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  • Received: 10 October 2025

  • Accepted: 22 January 2026

  • Published: 27 January 2026

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-37474-2

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Keywords

  • Renewable energy
  • Scenario-based decision-making
  • Potential assessment
  • Multiple power plant sites
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