Abstract
The agricultural sector in Ethiopia is primarily characterized by smallholder farming, which suffers from low productivity. Climate change is also one of the major constraints that hampers crop productivity. This study aims to analyze the current and future impacts of climate change on agricultural production using current data and the latest climate change scenarios. Panel data from the fourth (2018/19) and fifth (2021/22) waves of the Ethiopian Socioeconomic Survey were utilized. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources and the World Climate Research Program websites served as the main sources of historical and simulated climate data. The Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model, Community Earth System Model version 2, the Meteorological Research Institute Earth System Model version 2.0, and Medium-resolution version of the Norwegian Earth System Model version 2 Global Circulation Models were employed to get the simulated climate data from 2015 to 2100 in Ethiopia under four different scenarios. The output from the Ricardian model indicates that annual temperature has a statistically significant negative impact on both current and future crop production in Ethiopia, while annual precipitation has a positive impact. The study also reveals that current and future climate change has a heterogeneous impact on various types of agro-ecologies, while exhibiting a homogeneous impact on six major cereal crops. Therefore, policymakers should design appropriate climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies to reduce both the causes and effects of climate change, respectively.
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Data availability
The data used in the study are available on reasonable request to the corresponding author at getachewwollie53@gmail.com.
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Acknowledgements
We would like to acknowledge the Central Statistics Agency of Ethiopia and the World Bank Living Standards Measurement Study for providing the data.
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Getachew Wollie Asmare: Conceptualization; access and manage the data; organize the methodology; formal analysis and investigation; and write the original draft manuscript. Abebe D. Beyene: Conceptualization; provide materials; supervise the work; and review and editing the paper. Essa Chanie Mussa: Conceptualization; supervise the work; and review and editing the paper. Abebe Dagnew Koye: Conceptualization; supervise the work; and review and editing the paper.
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This study used secondary data obtained from the Ethiopian Socioeconomic Survey collected by the Central Statistics Agency of Ethiopia (CSA). The primary data collectors have asked consent of the respondent and made it confidential not to share their personal information, like their name, phone number, village, and names of the children of the head/spouse living elsewhere. We also applied all ethical elements to use the data and produce this study. All methods carried out in this study were in accordance with the ethical standards, relevant guidelines, and regulations of the University of Gondar. The researchers obtained an ethical clearance certificate from the Research and Collaboration Vice President Office of the University of Gondar for its ethical soundness.
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Appendix
Appendix
Appendix A. RE regression model and the Mundlak specification test output
Variables | Coefficient | Standared error (Robust) | Variables | Coefficient | Standared error (Robust) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year (2022) | 0.702*** | -0.062 | Tenure security | -0.108* | -0.056 | |
HH size | 0.065*** | -0.011 | Flat slope | reference group | ||
Education | 0.042 | -0.059 | Moderate slope | -0.022 | -0.053 | |
log of Age | -0.061 | -0.068 | Steep slope | 0.001 | -0.095 | |
Sex | 0.114** | -0.047 | Non_Adopters | reference group | ||
Aid | -0.043 | -0.087 | 1_Strategy | 0.154 | -0.162 | |
Credit Serv. | -0.036 | -0.101 | 2-Strategies | 0.210** | -0.101 | |
Extension | 0.072 | -0.052 | 3_Strategies | 0.068 | -0.125 | |
Soil erosion | -0.023 | -0.052 | 4_Strategies | 0.08 | -0.126 | |
Elevation | 0.091 | 0.083 | 5_Strategies | -0.08 | -0.155 | |
Crop damag | -0.072 | -0.051 | 6_Strategies | 0.378*** | -0.102 | |
Vertisol | reference group | 7_Strategies | 0.460*** | -0.112 | ||
Cambisol | -0.181 | -0.2 | log of Annual _ Precip | -6.270*** | -1.813 | |
Leptosol | 0.138* | -0.08 | log of Annual _ P- squa | 0.506*** | -0.142 | |
Luvisol | 0.088 | -0.065 | log of Bega_ Precipita | -9.214*** | -1.639 | |
Mixed type | 0.102 | -0.078 | log of Bega_ P- square | 0.676*** | -0.131 | |
Other soil ty | -0.098 | -0.182 | log of Belg_ Precipit | 9.183*** | -1.984 | |
Mod. soil qu | reference group | log of Belg_ P- square | -0.734*** | -0.187 | ||
Good s. quali | 0.190*** | -0.056 | log of Kiremt_ Precipi | -93.194*** | -29.018 | |
Poor s. qual | -0.122 | -0.094 | log of Kiremt_ P- squar | 16.688*** | -4.731 | |
Dist. to road | -0.031* | -0.017 | log of Annual_ Tempe | 25.680* | -14.62 | |
Dist. to mkt. | 0.113*** | -0.026 | log of Annual _ T- squa | -4.174* | -2.394 | |
Farmtype | 0.128*** | log of Belg_ Temper | 0.811 | -1.059 | ||
Maize | reference group | log of Belg_ T- square | -0.157 | -0.11 | ||
Barely | 0.448*** | -0.092 | log of Kiremt_ Tempe | 136.915*** | -47.141 | |
Millet | 0.516*** | -0.147 | log of Kiremt_ T- square | -23.954*** | -7.348 | |
Sorghum | 0.599*** | -0.069 | log of Bega_ Temper | -39.652** | -16.099 | |
Teff | 1.174*** | -0.07 | log of Bega_ T- square | 6.976*** | -2.547 | |
Wheat | 0.976*** | -0.085 | Constant | -20.094 | -23.646 | |
Overall r-squared= 0. 2061 | Mundlak specification test | |||||
Wald chi2(52) = 1003.75 | Ho: covariates are uncorrelated with unobserved effect | |||||
Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 | chi2(37) = 61.58 Prob > chi2 = 0.0068 | |||||
Appendix B. Falsification test on the validity of the selection instruments
Instrumental variables | Ho on outcome equation (Farm net revenue) | Ho on selection equation(Adaptation decision |
|---|---|---|
Received supports or cash transfers | Aid = 0 | Aid = 0 |
Accessed credit services | Credit_Services = 0 | Credit_ Services = 0 |
F(2, 4093) | 1.33 | 50.92 |
Prob > F | 0.2656 | 0.0000**** |
Appendix C. Test of overidentifying restrictions
Ho: | Both instruments are valid |
|---|---|
Sargan-Hansen Statistic | 1.663 |
P-value | 0.1972 |
Decision | Accept Ho. |
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Asmare, G.W., Beyene, A.D., Mussa, E.C. et al. Climate change impacts on agricultural production in Ethiopia using panel data. Sci Rep (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-37818-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-37818-y
