Abstract
Global climate change (GCC) and reservoir operations impact basin-scale hydrological conditions, altering river-scale hydrodynamics and aquatic habitats. This study designed a numerical evaluation methodology framework that integrates GCC, downscaling, hydrological, hydrodynamic, water temperature (WT), and habitat suitability models across global, basin, river, and habitat to predict the impacts of GCC on the hydrology and aquatic ecological environment of the reservoir-river system (RRS). The framework was applied to the Xiaolangdi Reservoir (XLDR) and its downstream river reach. In the study area, runoff, water level, WT, and weighted usable area (WUA) were predicted for the baseline and four scenarios, and the impact of GCC on the inflow, WT, and WUA of the RRS was evaluated. The results proved that the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, the statistical downscaling model (SDSM), three-dimensional (3D) and two-dimensional (2D) hydrodynamic, and WT models met requirements. Runoff remained sufficient to meet system demands under the four GCC scenarios. WT surface, middle, and bottom in the XLDR showed increasing trends. Compared to the baseline scenario, the decrease in WUA for the spawning and juvenile Yellow River carp (Cyprinus carpio haematopterus) (YRC) was mainly influenced by hydrodynamic conditions and rising WT changes. The impacts of GCC were likely to exacerbate the adverse effects of reservoir regulation on YRC’s breeding season.
Data availability
All data generated or analysed during this study are included in this published article [and its supplementary information files].
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Funding
The work is supported by the Key Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China (2024YFC3210903), the Natural Science Foundation of Henan (252300421013), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (52309092), the Basic R&D Specical Fund of Central Government for Non-profit Research Institutes (HKY-JBYW-2024-08), the Science and Technology Development Fund of the Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research (202415), the Natural Science Foundation of Henan (252300420479).
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Gaolei Zhao: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Funding acquisition, Methodology, Software, Visualization, Writing – original draft.Shimin Tian: Funding acquisition, Resources, Writing – review & editing.Fangxiu Zhang: Resources.Yawei Hu: Writing – review & editing.Rongxu Chen: Visualization.Bochao Huang: Software.Jiahua Duan: Supervision.
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Zhao, G., Tian, S., Zhang, F. et al. Impact of global climate change induced variations in reservoir-river systems on fish habitats. Sci Rep (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-41555-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-41555-7
