Fig. 4
Model validation and sensitivity analysis. The solid line is the simulation using the optimal parameters found for the best model fit to estimation data, the shaded area is the model uncertainty, the grey errorbars indicating the standard error of the mean (SEM) for the validation data. The model (shaded area) describes the dynamics of the: (A) blood alcohol concentration (BAC), C) urine alcohol concentration (UAC), E) blood ethyl glucuronide (EtG) concentration, and G) blood ethyl sulphate (EtS) concentration, given a beverage composed of 0.119 L of 40 v/v% spirits containing 0 kcal, consumed over 30 min (indicated by the black bar on the x-axis and paired with a meal of 500 kcal, consumed over the same 30 min duration. A sensitivity analysis was performed on a population with the anthropometrics ranging between; age 20–80 years, body mass index (BMI) 18–32 kg/m2, heights of 1.5–1.8 m for females and 1.6–1.95 m for males. This population was challenged with the same drink and food pairing as in A, C, E, and G and the model simulations of the population are presented as the blue gradient for (B) BAC, D) UAC, F) EtG, and H) EtS. The blue gradient corresponds to the volume of total body water (TBW) for the subjects.
