Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

Advertisement

Scientific Reports
  • View all journals
  • Search
  • My Account Login
  • Content Explore content
  • About the journal
  • Publish with us
  • Sign up for alerts
  • RSS feed
  1. nature
  2. scientific reports
  3. articles
  4. article
Forecasting of global water usage in agriculture and total global consumption by using the Bi-GRU model
Download PDF
Download PDF
  • Article
  • Open access
  • Published: 26 March 2026

Forecasting of global water usage in agriculture and total global consumption by using the Bi-GRU model

  • Muhammad Irfan1,
  • Javed Rashid2,
  • Javeria Bibi1,
  • Shiza Amir1,
  • Kamal M. Othman3 &
  • …
  • AbdulGuddoos S. A. Gaid4 

Scientific Reports , Article number:  (2026) Cite this article

  • 651 Accesses

  • Metrics details

We are providing an unedited version of this manuscript to give early access to its findings. Before final publication, the manuscript will undergo further editing. Please note there may be errors present which affect the content, and all legal disclaimers apply.

Subjects

  • Climate sciences
  • Engineering
  • Environmental sciences
  • Hydrology
  • Mathematics and computing
  • Water resources

Abstract

Water resources should be used efficiently in order to reduce constraints to future generations. it is important to stress the importance of well-developed management plans with sound forecasts. The need to have exact long-term forecast, limited access to data, changeable demand and some of the significant challenges it faces include integration of different datasets. The objective of this research is to predict Total Water consumption (TWC) and agricultural water use (AWU) which are increasing because of causes like climate change, seasonal highs and lows and financial requirements. Forecasting It is difficult to plan what to do with watering because of the unpredictable weather and soil conditions. In this Research, a Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit (Bi-GRU) is applied on the Global Water. These challenges to strategy could be addressed by the Consumption Dataset (2000–2024) in order to obtain the most accurate prediction. This is further enhanced by the fact that the performance of our model (Bi-GRU) is compared to that of other popular models like LSTM, Deep-AR, Mega-CRN and TFT. The play is very active. with an effective mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 0.2257, root mean square error (RMSE) by less than the fact that the mean squared error (MSE) = 0.0049 and the mean absolute error (MAE) = 0.0587 confirm that the Bi-GRU model is superior compared to other models used to forecast TWC and AWU that are also our dependent variables. The higher precision in forecasting rendered feasible by using deep learning algorithms enables a more precise evaluation of global water consumption particularly that of the agricultural and industrial sectors. It thus facilitates the development of efficient water-management schemes globally. The choice of Bi-GRU is motivated by its bidirectional temporal learning capability, which enables improved modeling of long-term and multivariate dependencies in global water consumption time-series.

Data availability

The data sets used and/or analyzed during the current study available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

References

  1. Geological Survey, U. S. How much water is there on Earth? U.S. Department of the Interior. (accessed January 1 2024). https://www.usgs.gv/special-topics/water-science-school/science/how-much-water-there-earth (2019).

  2. Kemp, D., Bond, C. J., Franks, D. M. & Cote, C. Mining, water, and human rights: Making the connection. J. Clean. Prod. 18(15), 1553–1562. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2010.06.008 (2010).

    Google Scholar 

  3. Cabral, J. P. S. Water microbiology: Bacterial pathogens and water. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 7(10), 3657–3703. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph7103657 (2010).

    Google Scholar 

  4. Vaishnavi, G. & Parvathi, C. Impact of population growth on per capita water demand in selected study area. Int. J. Early Child. Special Educ. 14 (4), 1305–1311. https://doi.org/10.9756/INT-JECSE/V14I4.922 (2022).

    Google Scholar 

  5. UN Water. UN World Water Development Report 2020. United Nations. ISBN 978-92-3-100371-4 (2020).

  6. Mekonnen, M. M. & Hoekstra, A. Y. A global assessment of the water footprint of farm animal products. Ecosystems 15(3), 401–415. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-011-9517-8 (2012).

    Google Scholar 

  7. Hoekstra, A. Y. & Mekonnen, M. M. The water footprint of humanity. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 109(9), 3232–3237. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1109936109 (2012).

    Google Scholar 

  8. El-Rawy, M. et al. Climate change impacts on water resources in arid and semi-arid regions: A case study in Saudi Arabia. Water 15, 606. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15030606 (2023).

    Google Scholar 

  9. Minh, D. L., Sadeghi-Niaraki, A., Huy, H. D., Min, K. & Moon, H. Deep learning approach for short-term stock trends prediction based on two-stream gated recurrent unit network. IEEE Access 6, 5539–55404 (2018).

    Google Scholar 

  10. Tanwar, S. et al. Deep learning-based cryptocurrency price prediction scheme with inter-dependent relations. IEEE Access 9, 138633–138646 (2021).

    Google Scholar 

  11. Lai, G., Chang, W. C., Yang, Y. & Liu, H. Modeling long-and short-term temporal patterns with deep neural networks. In Proc. 41st Int. ACM SIGIR Conf. Res. Dev. Inf. Retrieval, 765–774 (2018).

  12. Sen, R., Yu, H. F. & Dhillon, I. S. Think globally, act locally: a deep neural network approach to high-dimensional time series forecasting. Adv Neural Inf. Process. Syst, 32 (2019).

  13. Ghiassi, M., Fa’al, F. & Abrishamchi, A. Large metropolitan water demand forecasting using DAN2, FTDNN, and KNN models: A case study of the city of Tehran, Iran. Urban Water J. 14(6), 655–659 (2017).

    Google Scholar 

  14. Alba, E. L., Molin Ribeiro, D., Trojan, M. H., Adamczuk Oliveira, F. & Rodrigues, E. O. G., Water and Electricity Consumption Forecasting at an Educational Institution using Machine Learning models with Metaheuristic Optimization. arXiv preprint arXiv:2410.19709 (2024).

  15. Wang, D. et al. Water resource utilization and future supply–demand scenarios in energy cities of semi-arid regions. Sci. Rep. 14, 9973. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-54192-7 (2024).

    Google Scholar 

  16. Farah, E., Abdallah, A. & Shahrour, I. Prediction of water consumption using Artificial Neural Networks modelling (ANN). MATEC Web Conf. 295, 01004. https://doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/201929501004 (2019).

    Google Scholar 

  17. Yang, Z. et al. Water consumption prediction and influencing factor analysis based on PCA-BP neural network in karst regions: A case study of Guizhou Province. Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res. 30(12), 33504–33515. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-24604-2 (2023).

    Google Scholar 

  18. Osaki, M. R., Palhates, J. C. P. & Aguiar, F. G. Artificial neural network model for water consumption prediction in dairy farms. Biosci. J. 40, e40009. https://doi.org/10.14393/BJ-v40n0a2024-68845 (2024).

    Google Scholar 

  19. Bırant, D., Çalmaz, İ & Okur, İ. Estimating personal water consumption using artificial intelligence methods. Osmaniye Korkut Ata Univ. Fen Bilim. Enst. Derg. 6(2), 1434–1451 (2023).

    Google Scholar 

  20. Rustam, F. et al. An artificial neural network model for water quality and water consumption prediction. Water 14(21), 3359. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14213359 (2022).

    Google Scholar 

  21. Kim, D., Choi, S., Kang, S. & Noh, H. A study on developing an AI-based water demand prediction and classification model for Gurye Intake Station. Water 15(23), 4160. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15234160 (2023).

    Google Scholar 

  22. Kesornsit, W. & Sirisathitkul, Y. Water consumption prediction based on machine learning methods and public data. Adv. Comput. Des. 7(2), 113–128. https://doi.org/10.12989/acd.2022.7.2.113 (2022).

    Google Scholar 

  23. Fu, H., Xiang, S. & Kong, X. Machine learning-based prediction of water demand in megacities: A case study of Beijing. J. Ind. Eng. Appl. Sci. 2(2), 21–28. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10791242 (2024).

    Google Scholar 

  24. Elshaarawy, M. K. & Eltarabily, M. G. Machine learning models for predicting water quality index: Optimization and performance analysis for El Moghra, Egypt. Water Supply 24(9), 3269–3280 (2024).

    Google Scholar 

  25. Görenekli, K. & Gülbağ, A. Comparative analysis of machine learning techniques for water consumption prediction: A case study from Kocaeli Province. Sensors 24(17), 5846. https://doi.org/10.3390/s24175846 (2024).

    Google Scholar 

  26. Kim, J. et al. Development of a deep learning-based prediction model for water consumption at the household level. Water 14(9), 1512. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14091512 (2022).

    Google Scholar 

  27. Enbeyle, W. et al. Trend analysis and prediction on water consumption in southwestern Ethiopia. J. Nanomater. 2022, 3294954. https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/3294954 (2022).

    Google Scholar 

  28. Abbas, F. et al. Machine learning models for water quality prediction: A comprehensive analysis and uncertainty assessment in Mirpurkhas, Sindh, Pakistan.. Water 16(7), 941. https://doi.org/10.3390/w1607094 (2024).

    Google Scholar 

  29. Maußner, C., Oberascher, M., Autengruber, A., Kahl, A. & Sitzenfrei, R. Explainable artificial intelligence for reliable water demand forecasting to increase trust in predictions. Water Res. 268, 122779. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2024.122779 (2024).

    Google Scholar 

  30. Weng, T. N. et al. Groundwater level prediction by wavelet deep learning with smart groundwater IoT data. Water Resour. Res. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2025.122779 (2025).

    Google Scholar 

  31. Lei, L., Chen, W., Wu, B., Chen, C. & Liu, W. A building energy consumption prediction model based on rough set theory and deep learning algorithms. Energy Build. 240, 110886. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2021.110886 (2021).

    Google Scholar 

  32. Wang, D., Zhang, Y. & Yousefi, N. Urban water-energy consumption prediction influenced by climate change utilizing an innovative deep learning method. Sci. Rep. 14(1), 30931. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-81836-7 (2024).

    Google Scholar 

  33. Shams, M. Y. et al. Water quality prediction using machine learning models based on grid search method. Multim. Tools Appl. 83, 35307–35334. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11042-023-16737-4 (2024).

    Google Scholar 

  34. Zhao, S. et al. A water quality prediction model based on modal decomposition and hybrid deep learning models. Water 17(2), 184. https://doi.org/10.3390/w17020184 (2025).

    Google Scholar 

  35. Gil-Gamboa, A., Paneque, P., Trull, Ó. & Troncoso, A. Medium-term water consumption forecasting based on deep neural networks. Expert Syst. Appl. 247, 123234. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2024.123234 (2024).

    Google Scholar 

  36. Soundankar, A. Global Water Consumption Dataset (2000–2024). Available at Kaggle: (2024). https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/atharvasoundankar/global-water-consumption-dataset-2000-2024

  37. Mohammadi, P., Rashidi, A., Malekzadeh, M. & Tiwari, S. Eval uating various machine learning algorithms for automated inspection of culverts. Eng. Anal. Boundary Elem. 148, 366–375 (2023).

    Google Scholar 

  38. Lima, F. T. & Souza, V. M. A. A large comparison of normalization methods on time series. Big Data Res. 34, 100407 (2023).

    Google Scholar 

  39. Mohammadi, P., Rashidi, A., Malekzadeh, M. & Tiwari, S. Evaluating various machine learning algorithms for automated inspection of culverts. Eng. Anal. Boundary Elem. 148, 366–375 (2023).

    Google Scholar 

  40. Chung, J. et al. Empirical evaluation of gated recurrent neural networks on sequence modeling. arXiv preprint arXiv:1412.3555 (2014).

  41. Reza, S., Ferreira, M. C., Machado, J. J. M. & Tavares, J. M. R. S. A customized residual neural network and bi-directional gated recurrent unit‐based automatic speech recognition model. Expert. Syst. Appl. 215, 119293 (2023).

    Google Scholar 

  42. Welcome to Colaboratory, accessed may 18. (2025). https://colab.research.google.com/notebooks/intro.ipynb?utm_source%20=%20scsindex. 35. A. P.

  43. Singh, S. K., Jha, S. K. & Gupta, R. Enhancing the accuracy of wind speed estimation model using an efficient hybrid deep learning algorithm. Sustain. Energy. Technol. Assess. 61, 103603. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seta.2023.103603 (2024).

    Google Scholar 

  44. Singh, S. K., Jha, S. K. & Gupta, R. A fusion approach of discrete wavelet decomposition and deep learning techniques for the enhancement of wind speed prediction accuracy. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 156(4), 1–28. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-025-05450-x (2025).

    Google Scholar 

  45. Singh, S. K. & Jha, S. K. Harnessing the power of advanced deep learning algorithms for foretelling wind speed. In Proceedings of the 2024 IEEE Silchar Subsection Conference (SILCON), 1–6 (IEEE, 2024). https://doi.org/10.1109/SILCON63976.2024.10910631

  46. Gupta, R., Jha, S. K., Jha, P., Chaprana, K. & Singh, S. K. Enhancing the accuracy of global horizontal irradiance estimation model using convolutional neural network coupled with wavelet transform. Eur. Phys. J. Plus 139(10), 924. https://doi.org/10.1140/epjp/s13360-024-05730-x (2024).

    Google Scholar 

  47. Sharma, K. B., Jha, S. K. & Singh, S. K. Feature selection using hybrid machine learning approach for wind power generation. In Proceedings of the 2025 3rd International Conference on Communication, Security, and Artificial Intelligence (ICCSAI), Vol. 3, 159–164 (IEEE, 2025). https://doi.org/10.1109/ICCSAI64074.2025.11064013

Download references

Acknowledgements

The authors extend their appreciation to the Department of Mathematics at University of Okara and Department of Communication & Computer Engineering, Faculty of Engineering & Information Technology, Taiz University, Taiz, Yemen.

Funding

This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Mathematics, University of Okara, Okara, Pakistan

    Muhammad Irfan, Javeria Bibi & Shiza Amir

  2. Information Technology Services, University of Okara, Okara, Pakistan

    Javed Rashid

  3. Department of Electrical Engineering, College of Engineering and Architecture, Umm Al- Qura University, Makkah, Saudi Arabia

    Kamal M. Othman

  4. Department of Communication & Computer Engineering, Faculty of Engineering & Information Technology, Taiz University, Taiz, 9674, Yemen

    AbdulGuddoos S. A. Gaid

Authors
  1. Muhammad Irfan
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Javed Rashid
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Javeria Bibi
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Shiza Amir
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Kamal M. Othman
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

  6. AbdulGuddoos S. A. Gaid
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

All the authors have equally contributed to this manuscript. However the main contribution of each author is as follows.Muhammad Irfan (Conceptualization, Investigation, Methodology, Project administration, Writing – review, Supervision), Javed Rashid (Conceptualization, Investigation, Software, Writing – original draft, Visualization), Javeria Bibi(Investigation, Methodology, Project administration, Supervision, Validation), Shiza Amir (Conceptualization, Investigation, Software, Visualization), Kamal M. Othman(Formal analysis, Funding acquisition, Project administration, Software, Resources), AbdulGuddoos S.A. Gaid(Formal analysis, Funding acquisition, Project administration, Validation, Visualization).All authors agree to be accountable for the content and conclusions of the article.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to AbdulGuddoos S. A. Gaid.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Additional information

Publisher’s note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License, which permits any non-commercial use, sharing, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if you modified the licensed material. You do not have permission under this licence to share adapted material derived from this article or parts of it. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Irfan, M., Rashid, J., Bibi, J. et al. Forecasting of global water usage in agriculture and total global consumption by using the Bi-GRU model. Sci Rep (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-44885-8

Download citation

  • Received: 07 November 2025

  • Accepted: 16 March 2026

  • Published: 26 March 2026

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-44885-8

Share this article

Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content:

Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article.

Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative

Keywords

  • Total water consumption
  • Agricultural water use
  • Bi-GRU architecture
  • Twenty Global countries
  • Deep Learning (DL)
Download PDF

Advertisement

Explore content

  • Research articles
  • News & Comment
  • Collections
  • Subjects
  • Follow us on Facebook
  • Follow us on X
  • Sign up for alerts
  • RSS feed

About the journal

  • About Scientific Reports
  • Contact
  • Journal policies
  • Guide to referees
  • Calls for Papers
  • Editor's Choice
  • Journal highlights
  • Open Access Fees and Funding

Publish with us

  • For authors
  • Language editing services
  • Open access funding
  • Submit manuscript

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

  • Explore articles by subject
  • Find a job
  • Guide to authors
  • Editorial policies

Scientific Reports (Sci Rep)

ISSN 2045-2322 (online)

nature.com footer links

About Nature Portfolio

  • About us
  • Press releases
  • Press office
  • Contact us

Discover content

  • Journals A-Z
  • Articles by subject
  • protocols.io
  • Nature Index

Publishing policies

  • Nature portfolio policies
  • Open access

Author & Researcher services

  • Reprints & permissions
  • Research data
  • Language editing
  • Scientific editing
  • Nature Masterclasses
  • Research Solutions

Libraries & institutions

  • Librarian service & tools
  • Librarian portal
  • Open research
  • Recommend to library

Advertising & partnerships

  • Advertising
  • Partnerships & Services
  • Media kits
  • Branded content

Professional development

  • Nature Awards
  • Nature Careers
  • Nature Conferences

Regional websites

  • Nature Africa
  • Nature China
  • Nature India
  • Nature Japan
  • Nature Middle East
  • Privacy Policy
  • Use of cookies
  • Legal notice
  • Accessibility statement
  • Terms & Conditions
  • Your US state privacy rights
Springer Nature

© 2026 Springer Nature Limited

Nature Briefing Anthropocene

Sign up for the Nature Briefing: Anthropocene newsletter — what matters in anthropocene research, free to your inbox weekly.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing: Anthropocene