Abstract
This paper investigates deception in orbital games, focusing on how maneuverable decoys can manipulate players’ perceptions, forcing them to make probabilistic decisions. This paper distinguishes between physical-level concealment (stealth and camouflage) and cognitive-level deception (simulation and dissimulation), modeling it as a balance of expectation shaping, mixed strategies, and information entropy manipulation. The study proposes a game-theoretic framework that integrates perfect rationality, common knowledge, and mixed-strategy Nash equilibrium, enabling the pursuer and evader to reason over probabilistic outcomes under incomplete information. A two-phase model is constructed: (1) a single-step game where agents can only maneuver once, and (2) a multi-step game involving Boyd-cycles, belief updates, and active target switching. The framework is extended to accommodate imperfect decoys via a realism coefficient, and it analyzes how distinguishability affects the Nash equilibrium. Results from a geostationary orbit indicate that when the evader faces an overwhelming pursuer (maneuverability 6:1), introducing a decoy can increase the evader’s survival probability from almost zero to 30.8%. This study offers a foundational perspective on orbital deception beyond evasive scenarios, including feints and scenarios in which both teams employ decoys. Findings emphasize the tactical value of cognitive deception in space security and point to future directions in robust, belief-aware game design under uncertainty.
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Funding
This research was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China: Gravitational Wave Detection Project (No.2024YFC 2207900, No.2021YFC2202601, No.2021YFC2202603) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.12172288 and No.12472046).
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D.Z.proposed the concept and principle, and H.H. developed the idea for the study. H.H. performed the research, analyzed data, and wrote the initial draft of the paper. All authors discussed the results and revised the manuscript. The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest regarding the publication of this article.
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Han, H., Dang, Z. Deception in orbital games: simulation and dissimulation with a maneuverable decoy. Sci Rep (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-46097-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-46097-6
