Abstract
We introduce Integrated Relative Humidity (IRH), a layer-resolved diagnostic of tropospheric saturation, to investigate moisture-precipitation interactions in the subtropical coastal environment (Hong Kong). Using 16 years (2005–2020) of co-located radiosonde and rain gauge data, we classify observations into four precipitation lifecycle stages: No Rain (NR), Before Rain (BR), During Rain (DR), and After Rain (AR). IRH is computed from the surface to nine standard pressure levels (1000–150 hPa), enabling layer-specific saturation diagnostics across these stages. IRH probability density functions (PDFs) reveal stage-specific vertical structures with saturation peaks consistently near 850 hPa. BR shows increasing lower-tropospheric saturation, DR exhibits the highest deep-column saturation, and AR displays reduced mid-level saturation, reflecting dynamic redistribution across the precipitation lifecycle. Bimodal PDF structures in BR, DR, and AR stages are consistent with transitions between shallow and deep convective regimes. Reversed cumulative distribution function (RCDF) for IRH = 0.90 captures low/mid-level buildup in BR and DR, while RCDF for IRH = 0.80 highlights upper-level dissipation in AR. Crucially, IRH thresholds of 0.82 at 700 hPa and 0.70 at 150 hPa correspond to 84% and 82% of DR events, respectively, while both exclude 76% of NR cases. Furthermore, the threshold of 0.70 at 150 hPa is also exceeded in 72% of BR events with the same NR exclusion. These findings demonstrate IRH as a layer-resolved metric for moisture-precipitation interactions, providing a quantitative diagnostic framework that may inform the development of nowcasting tools and aid in model evaluation in subtropical environments.
Data availability
Data from the Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive (IGRA) are available at (https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/weather-balloon/integrated-global-radiosonde-archive), and rain gauge data are available from the Hong Kong Observatory upon request.
References
Neelin, J. D. & Held, I. M. Modeling Tropical Convergence Based on the Moist Static Energy Budget. Mon Weather Rev. 115, 3–12 (1987).
Trenberth, K. E. Atmospheric Moisture Recycling: Role of Advection and Local Evaporation. J. Clim. 12, 1368–1381 (1999).
John, M. W. & Peter, V. Hobbs. Atmospheric Science, an Introductory Survey. (2006).
Sherwood, S. C., Roca, R., Weckwerth, T. M. & Andronova, N. G. Tropospheric water vapor, convection, and climate. Rev. Geophys. 48, RG2001 (2010).
Rees, J. A. A Short Course in Cloud Physics. Phys. Bull. 27, 355–355 (1976).
Yanai, M., Esbensen, S. & Chu, J. H. Determination of Bulk Properties of Tropical Cloud Clusters from Large-Scale Heat and Moisture Budgets. J. Atmos. Sci. 30, 611–627 (1973).
Chen, X., Leung, L. R., Feng, Z. & Yang, Q. Precipitation-Moisture Coupling Over Tropical Oceans: Sequential Roles of Shallow, Deep, and Mesoscale Convective Systems. Geophys Res. Lett 49, (2022).
Chen, X., Leung, L. R., Feng, Z. & Yang, Q. Environmental Controls on MCS Lifetime Rainfall Over Tropical Oceans. Geophys Res. Lett 50, (2023).
Raymond, D. J. Thermodynamic control of tropical rainfall. Quarterly J. Royal Meteorological Society 126, (2000).
Bretherton, C. S., Peters, M. E. & Back, L. E. Relationships between Water Vapor Path and Precipitation over the Tropical Oceans. J. Clim. 17, 1517–1528 (2004).
Ahmed, F. & Schumacher, C. Convective and stratiform components of the precipitation-moisture relationship. Geophys Res. Lett 42, (2015).
Igel, M. R., Herbener, S. R. & Saleeby, S. M. The tropical precipitation pickup threshold and clouds in a radiative convective equilibrium model: 1. Column moisture. J. Geophys. Research: Atmos. 122, 6453–6468 (2017).
Rushley, S. S., Kim, D., Bretherton, C. S. & Ahn, M. -S. Reexamining the Nonlinear Moisture‐Precipitation Relationship Over the Tropical Oceans. Geophys. Res. Lett. 45, 1133–1140 (2018).
Velez-Pardo, M. & Cronin, T. W. The Response of Tropical Rainfall to Idealized Small‐Scale Thermal and Mechanical Forcing. Geophys Res. Lett 51, (2024).
Peters, O. & Neelin, J. D. Critical phenomena in atmospheric precipitation. Nat. Phys. 2, 393–396 (2006).
Neelin, J. D., Peters, O., Lin, J. W. B., Hales, K. & Holloway, C. E. Rethinking convective quasi-equilibrium: Observational constraints for stochastic convective schemes in climate models. Philosophical Trans. Royal Soc. A: Math. Phys. Eng. Sciences 366, (2008).
Neelin, J. D., Peters, O. & Hales, K. The Transition to Strong Convection. J. Atmos. Sci. 66, 2367–2384 (2009).
Sahany, S., Neelin, J. D., Hales, K. & Neale, R. B. Deep Convective Transition Characteristics in the Community Climate System Model and Changes under Global Warming. J. Clim. 27, 9214–9232 (2014).
Hagos, S. M. et al. The Relationship between Precipitation and Precipitable Water in CMIP6 Simulations and Implications for Tropical Climatology and Change. J. Clim. 34, 1587–1600 (2021).
Wolding, B. et al. Interactions between Moisture and Tropical Convection. Part I: The Coevolution of Moisture and Convection. J. Atmos. Sci. 77, 1783–1799 (2020).
Derbyshire, S. H. et al. Sensitivity of moist convection to environmental humidity. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 130, 3055–3079 (2004).
Holloway, C. E. & Neelin, J. D. Moisture Vertical Structure, Column Water Vapor, and Tropical Deep Convection. J. Atmos. Sci. 66, 1665–1683 (2009).
Schiro, K. A. & Neelin, J. D. Deep Convective Organization, Moisture Vertical Structure, and Convective Transition Using Deep-Inflow Mixing. J. Atmos. Sci. 76, 965–987 (2019).
Ahmed, F. & Neelin, J. D. Reverse Engineering the Tropical Precipitation–Buoyancy Relationship. J. Atmos. Sci. 75, 1587–1608 (2018).
Powell, S. W. Observing Possible Thermodynamic Controls on Tropical Marine Rainfall in Moist Environments. J. Atmos. Sci. 76, 3737–3751 (2019).
Sobel, A. & Maloney, E. An Idealized Semi-Empirical Framework for Modeling the Madden–Julian Oscillation. J. Atmos. Sci. 69, 1691–1705 (2012).
Bergemann, M. & Jakob, C. How important is tropospheric humidity for coastal rainfall in the tropics? Geophys. Res. Lett. 43, 5860–5868 (2016).
Kuo, Y. H., Schiro, K. A. & Neelin, J. D. Convective transition statistics over tropical oceans for climate model diagnostics: Observational baseline. J Atmos. Sci 75, (2018).
Muller, C. J., Back, L. E., O’Gorman, P. A. & Emanuel, K. A. A model for the relationship between tropical precipitation and column water vapor. Geophys Res. Lett 36, (2009).
Igel, M. R. The tropical precipitation pickup threshold and clouds in a radiative convective equilibrium model: 2. Two-layer moisture. J. Geophys. Research: Atmos. 122, 6469–6487 (2017).
Sobel, A. H., Yuter, S. E., Bretherton, C. S. & Kiladis, G. N. Large-scale meteorology and deep convection during TRMM KWAJEX. Mon Weather Rev 132, (2004).
Kuo, Y. H., Neelin, J. D. & Mechoso, C. R. Tropical Convective Transition Statistics and Causality in the Water Vapor–Precipitation Relation. J. Atmos. Sci. 74, 915–931 (2017).
Hagos, S., Leung, L. R., Ashfaq, M. & Balaguru, K. South Asian monsoon precipitation in CMIP5: a link between inter-model spread and the representations of tropical convection. Clim. Dyn. 52, 1049–1061 (2019).
Schiro, K. A., Neelin, J. D., Adams, D. K. & Lintner, B. R. Deep Convection and Column Water Vapor over Tropical Land versus Tropical Ocean: A Comparison between the Amazon and the Tropical Western Pacific. J. Atmos. Sci. 73, 4043–4063 (2016).
Chen, B., Liu, C. & Mapes, B. E. Relationships between Large Precipitating Systems and Atmospheric Factors at a Grid Scale. J. Atmos. Sci. 74, 531–552 (2017).
Stevens, B. et al. Structure and Dynamical Influence of Water Vapor in the Lower Tropical Troposphere. Surv. Geophys. 38, 1371–1397 (2017).
Todd Emmenegger. Lower free-tropospheric mixing and the transition to tropical deep convection- observational estimates and biases in global climate models (University of California, 2024).
Sobel, A. H. & Bretherton, C. S. Modeling Tropical Precipitation in a Single Column. J. Clim. 13, 4378–4392 (2000).
Ahmed, F. & Schumacher, C. Geographical differences in the tropical precipitation-moisture relationship and rain intensity onset. Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 1114–1122 (2017).
Kuo, Y. H. et al. Convective Transition Statistics over Tropical Oceans for Climate Model Diagnostics: GCM Evaluation. J. Atmos. Sci. 77, 379–403 (2020).
Allan, R. P. & Soden, B. J. Atmospheric Warming and the Amplification of Precipitation Extremes. Sci. (1979). 321, 1481–1484 (2008).
Donat, M. G., Lowry, A. L., Alexander, L. V. & O’Gorman, P. A. Maher, N. More extreme precipitation in the world’s dry and wet regions. Nat. Clim. Chang. 6, 508–513 (2016).
Houze, R. A. Mesoscale convective systems. Rev. Geophys. 42, 1–43 (2004).
Feng, Z. et al. Spatiotemporal characteristics and large-scale environments of mesoscale convective systems east of the rocky mountains. J Clim 32, (2019).
Houze, R. A. Stratiform Precipitation in Regions of Convection: A Meteorological Paradox? Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 78, 2179–2196 (1997).
Schumacher, C. & Houze, R. A. The TRMM Precipitation Radar’s View of Shallow, Isolated Rain. J. Appl. Meteorol. 42, 1519–1524 (2003).
Wacker, U., Frisius, T. & Herbert, F. Evaporation and Precipitation Surface Effects in Local Mass Continuity Laws of Moist Air. J. Atmos. Sci. 63, 2642–2652 (2006).
McMahon, T. A., Peel, M. C., Lowe, L., Srikanthan, R. & McVicar, T. R. Estimating actual, potential, reference crop and pan evaporation using standard meteorological data: a pragmatic synthesis. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 17, 1331–1363 (2013).
Aminzadeh, M., Roderick, M. L. & Or, D. A generalized complementary relationship between actual and potential evaporation defined by a reference surface temperature. Water Resour. Res. 52, 385–406 (2016).
Acknowledgements
The authors gratefully acknowledge the Hong Kong Observatory for providing high-quality rain gauge data and the Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive for access to long-term atmospheric sounding profiles. The authors also appreciate the constructive feedback from anonymous reviewers, which helped improve the clarity and rigor of this manuscript.
Funding
The research work described in this paper was conducted in the JC STEM Lab of Precipitation and Convection funded by The Hong Kong Jockey Club Charities Trust (FA123). Additional support was provided by the State Key Laboratory of Climate Resilience for Coastal Cities (ITC-SKLCRCC26EG01) at The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, the ITC-RTH scheme (P0413), and the ITF grant (ITP/047/23LP).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
Moufeng Wan led the conceptualization, formal analysis, visualization, and original draft preparation. Moufeng Wan developed the methodology. Pak Wai Chan curated the observational datasets. Hui Su and Pak Wai Chan provided supervision. All authors—Hui Su, Chengxing Zhai, Mengxi Wu, Pak Wai Chan, and Shuangchen Du—contributed to reviewing and editing the manuscript. Hui Su supported funding acquisition.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Supplementary Information
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License, which permits any non-commercial use, sharing, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if you modified the licensed material. You do not have permission under this licence to share adapted material derived from this article or parts of it. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.
About this article
Cite this article
Wan, M., Su, H., Zhai, C. et al. Integrated relative humidity as a layer-resolved indicator for moisture-precipitation interactions. Sci Rep (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-47087-4
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-47087-4