Fig. 3
From: Improved calculation of warming-equivalent emissions for short-lived climate pollutants
Demonstration of how different methane emission pathways a result in different long-term temperature responses b depending on the Equilibrium Climate sensitivity (ECS) and long-term climate adjustment time (d2). Dashed lines show methane emissions sustained at peak rates, while for solid lines methane emissions decline from peak at rates required to achieve approximately stable temperature responses under different climate model parametrisations. Colours represent different d2 values (1-sigma values of τs from Geoffroy, et al.32 in purple and red, and the default value from FaIR in green). Shading indicates different values of ECS, with the darkest shades showing ECS = 2.0 K, and lightest showing ECS = 3.2 K (lighter shading, i.e., greater ECS, requiring more rapid rates of decline in methane emissions a or resulting in increased long-term warming from sustained emissions b). Default values for FaIR are shown by the heavy green lines (ECS = 2.75 K, d2 = 239 years). See text for further details
