Fig. 3: Schematic of 2010 extremes probabilities derived from W@H.
From: Drivers behind the summer 2010 wave train leading to Russian heatwave and Pakistan flooding
First row: the probability of exceeding the 90th percentile threshold for WRussia SAT and Pakistan Rainfall Indices and probability of exceeding both the 90th thresholds for both WRussia SAT and Pakistan Rainfall contemporaneously in GlobClim. 10% probabilities in the climatology row of the WRussia SAT and Pakistan Rainfall columns are true by construction. Pakistan Rainfall is available for both global and regional model runs but WRussia SAT is available only for global simulations as the Regional model is centered over South Asia. Concurrent events probability cannot be carried out for RegClim since this ensemble of simulation is not nested on the analyzed GlobClim ensemble. Second row: Same as the first row but for Glob2010 (SAT and Rainfall) and Reg2010 (Rainfall). Third row: Same as the first row but for a sub-selection of ensemble members in Glob2010 (SAT and Rainfall) and Reg2010 (Rainfall) showing dry soil conditions over western Russia in June. Fourth row: Same as the first row but for a sub-selection of ensemble members in Glob2010 (SAT and Rainfall) and Reg2010 (Rainfall) showing high-latitude land warming signal in the 24.07–08.08 period.
