Fig. 2: Observed and simulated 1965 to 2014 time series of AI anomalies (relative to 1973 to 2002).

The 5-yr mean annual AI anomalies overland of the globe (a), NH (b), and SH (c) for the mean of observations (OBS) and CMIP6 simulations accounting for ALL, NAT, and ANT forcings. The ensemble means for each set of forcings are given in red, green, and brown solid lines for ALL, NAT, and ANT, respectively. The observation means are indicated with solid black lines. Red, green, and brown shading represent the 5–95% ranges for ALL, NAT, and ANT ensembles, respectively. The gray dashed lines represent the 5%–95% ranges for the range of variability for the piControl.